Thursday, June 18, 2015

2015 NBA DRAFT: TEAM NEEDS: REBUILDING TEAMS

I do my team needs based on the type of team they are.  In my opinion we have five different types of teams out there.

(5) THE CONTENDERS (pretty self explanatory): GS, CLV, HOU, LAC, SA 


(7) GOOD PERENNIAL PLAYOFF TEAMS (good teams with veteran stars/core, however they lack either a superstar or depth to be considered a true contender):  ATL, MEM, POR, DAL, TOR, WAS, BRK


(4) CONTENDERS WITH INJURED STARS LAST YEAR
(injured star with games played last year in parenthesis): CHI (Derrick Rose-51 games), OKC (Kevin Durant-27 games), IND (Paul George- 6 games) MIA (Chris Bosh-44 games)

(5) EMERGING TEAMS (These are young teams with young cores that either made or battled for a playoff spot last year,. They should become contenders or perennial playoff teams soon): 

NO, MIL, BOS, UTAH, PHO

(9) REBUILDING (self explanatory, all these teams have top 9 picks and won less than 34 games last year): CHR, DET, DEN, SAC, ORL, LAL, PHL, NY, MIN 



Notes: Projected 2013 Salary cap is 67.1 million.  


The number next to position is the range the player ranks in the NBA in regards to other starters at their position. 

In parenthesis next to the players name on the left is their true value score the average of games played the past three season and the players age 

My true value score is calculated based on 4 metrics 
True scoring: I take points per game multiplied by True Shooting Percentage 
Ball Control: Assists minus turnovers multiplied by 2 or assists to turnover ratio, which ever is higher
Hustle: The sum of rebounds, steals and blocks per game 
Plus/Minus and VORP: The average of a players plus/minus with a player value over replacement player. The plus minus gives a good indication of the players value to the team while value over replacement player is an individual advanced metric that measures  player based on the average player at his position 

The true value score is done based on a two year sample size for most players, for rookies and players that had larger roles than last year, I do the true value score based on just this season. 
  




MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Picks: 
1, 31, 36

2014-2015 Record: 16-66
Head Coach/GM: Flip Saunders/Milt Newton
Starters/Core: 
Young SF: 2014 #1 pick Andrew Wiggins (17.897/82.0/20) played every game last year 
Won Rookie of the year and has top 5 SF potential 
Average PG (13-20 when healthy) : Ricky Rubio (23.936/53.6/25)
Average C/F: Nikola Pekovic (17.313/49.0/29) 
Young C (21-25): 2013 #21 pick Gorgui Dieng (15.71/66.5/25)  
Average SG (17-20): Kevin Martin (15.966/61.3/32) 
Bench/Depth: 
CG: 2014 #13 pick Zach LaVine
PF: 2014 #15 pick Adreian Payne
SF: 2013 #13 pick Shabazz Muhammed 
F/C: Kevin Garnett
G/F: Chase Budinger 
Over Priced: Pekovic (12.10 million), too much for a guy that has played a combined 85 games the past two seasons
Great Value:  Dieng (1.47 million-rookie deal) averaged 9.7ppg, 8.7rpg and 1.7bpg last year
2015 Cap $$$: 56.065 (11 players) 
Key Free Agents: Garnett

Team Stats:

Offensive Points Per Game: 23
Offensive Rating: 25
Points Allowed: 30
Defensive Rating: 30
Assists Per Game: 17
Rebounds Per Game: 27
3-Point Percentage: 25
Field Goal Percentage: 24

Needs:
Star big man, wing depth, 3 point shooting, defensive players everywhere 
Options: 
Karl-Anthony Towns or Jahlil Okafor at #1, address PG and wing depth with picks 31 and 36
Synopsis: 
Minnesota traded Kevin Love for #1 overall pick Andrew Wiggins last summer and the results were as expected. Wiggins was solid but still has a LONG way to go in his development. He is already a good defender but his ball skills need a lot of work. He had more turnovers than assists and his 4.6 rebounds per game seem pretty low for someone that is 6-8 with elite jumping skills. Expect a stat line around 19ppg, 7rpg, 3apg and 1.6spg next year. That is similar to what Paul George put up in his third year and what Rudy Gay put up in his second year. 

The rest of the team couldn't stay healthy as Rubio missed 60 games, Pekovic missed 51 games and Martin missed 43 games. The injuries opened up playing time for Dieng, who was a pleasant surprise in his second season.  LaVine won the dunk contest but his guard skills are very raw. They brought back Kevin Garnett to be a mentor a play 15-20 minutes per game. Garnett will be retained at the veteran minimum this off season.

Towns is the heavy favorite to go #1. With KG and Pekovic there, they can develop him slowly. The TWolves finished with the worst record in 2015, but if everyone can stay healthy this should be a 30 win team next year.






LOS ANGELES LAKERS 

Picks: 2, 27, 34
2014-2015 Record: 21-61
Head Coach/GM: Byron Scott/Mitch Kupchak
Starters/Core
Former Superstar SG (3-7, when healthy): Kobe Bryant (23.657/34.6/37) 
Young CG: 2014 #46 pick Jordan Clarkson (14.293/59.0/22) 
Below Average PG (26-30): Jeremy Lin (14.877/75.6/27)
F/C (6th man): Ed Davis (14.032/74.3/26) 
Below Average C (27-30): Jordan Hill (13.784/57.0/28) 
Average PF (21-26): Carlos Boozer (13.338/75.3/33)
Below Average SF (worst full time starter in 2015) Wesley Johnson (11.093/68.3/28)
Depth: 
PF: 2014 #7 pick Julius Randle 
SG: Nick Young 
SG: Wayne Ellington 
PF: Ryan Kelly 
Over Priced: Bryant (25.0) never a smart decision to make an injured 37 year old the highest paid player in the league. 
Great Value: Davis (1.1-player option) 8.3ppg and 7.6rpg in only 23 minutes per game. 
2015 Cap $$$: 38.592 (8 players)
Key Free Agents: Davis (1.1 player option), Hill (9.0 team option), Lin, Boozer, Johnson, Ellington 

Team Stats:

Offensive Points Per Game: 19
Offensive Rating: 29 
Points Allowed: 29
Defensive Rating: 29
Assists Per Game: 21
Rebounds Per Game: 12
3-Point Percentage: 17
Field Goal Percentage: 25

Needs:

Everything, young players to build around, defensive players  
Options: 
Karl Anthony Towns, DeAngelo Russell, Jahlil Okafor or Kristpas Porzingis at #2.
Rakeem Christmas, Christian Wood, Norman Powell, Jordan Mickey, Jonathan Holmes, Aaron White, Dakari Johnson, Olivier Hanlan at #27 and #34
Synopsis: 
The Lakers are ready to move on from the Kobe Bryant era. They drafted two young players to build around last year in Julius Randle and Jordan Clarkson. Randle missed the year with an injury. They hope he can start at power forward next season. Clarkson played very well for a second round pick, earning first team all-rookie honors. They could take Russell and then move Clarkson to the two. They also could take a solid big man like Porzingis or Okafor. While Okafor is the better player right now, Porzingis has more upside and would be a better fir next to Randle with his outside shooting ability.



PHILADELPHIA 76ERS   

Picks: 3, 35, 37, 47, 58, 60
2014-2015 Record: 18-64
Head Coach/GM: Brett Brown/Sam Hinkie 
Starters/Core: 
Good Young C/F: 2013 #6 pick Nerlens Noel (18.731/75 games last year after missing all of 13-14/21 years old)
Top 10 center potential, top 15 PF potential 
Young SF (24-30) 2013 UDFA Robert Covington (15.292/70.0/24) 
Below Average PF (worst full time starter in 2015): Luc Mbah a Moute (10.201/63.0/28)
CG: Tony Wroten (10.908/51.0/22) 
Young SG (27-30) Hollis Thompson (8.019/74.0/24) 
Bench/Depth: 
C: 2014 #3 pick Joel Embiid 
SF: 2014 #39 pick Jerami Grant 
PG: 2013 #34 pick Isaiah Cannan
SG: 2014 UDFA JaKarr Sampson 
PF: 2012 #53 pick Furkan Aldemir (was a rookie last year) 
C: Henry Sims 
PG: Ish Smith 
Over Priced: Embiid (4.6), is currently the highest paid player on the roster and hasn't played in one game yet and now there is news he may miss all of the 15-16 season as well 
Great Value: Noel (3.4) came on strong in his rookie year, should get consideration for all-defensive team honors next season  
2015 Cap $$$: 29.686 (10 players) 
Key Free Agents: Mbah a Moute, Sims, Smith 

Team Stats:

Offensive Points Per Game: 29
Offensive Rating: 30 
Points Allowed: 20
Defensive Rating: 13
Assists Per Game: 24
Rebounds Per Game: 19
3-Point Percentage: 29
Field Goal Percentage: 30

Needs:  
A franchise player to build around, PG, scoring wing, F/C depth 
Options: 

Russell, Okafor or Porzingis, if they take Okafor or Porzingis at #3, they could trade back into the first round to land a PG like Jerian Grant, Tyus Jones, Delon Wright or Terry Rozier  
Synopsis: 
The 76ers may be the least talented team in the NBA. Minnesota and New York's sub 20 win seasons can be attributed somewhat to injuries. Philadelphia is just lacking talent. They had 19 different players start at least one game for them. Many of those players were cut from other rosters. They have one good young player to build around in Nerlens Noel. He is an incredible defensive presence at a rim protector and shot blocker. He also averaged 1.77 steals per game and 8.1 rebounds per game. They now need a stud to build around on the offensive end. It looks like it will be either Russell or Okafor. One of them is guaranteed to be available at #3.  



NEW YORK KNICKS
Pick: 
4

2014-2015 Record: 17-65
Head Coach/GM: Derrick Fisher/Phil Jackson (President)/Steve Mills (VP/GM)
Starters/Core:   
Star SF (4/5) Carmelo Anthony (27.065/61.3/31) 
Young SG (22-26) 2014 UDFA Langston Galloway (13.279/45.0 signed at mid season/23)
Below Average PG (25-30) Jose Calderon (12.463/65.3/33)
Below Average C (28-30) Jason Smith (8.216/54.6/29)
Bench/Depth:
SG: 2013 #24 pick Tim Hardaway Jr
SF: 2014 #34 pick Cleanthony Early 
PG: 2013 #18 pick Shane Larkin 
F/C: Andrea Barganani
C/F: Cole Aldrich
CG: Alexey Shved 
PF: Lou Amunson 
CF: Quincy Acy 
Over Priced: Calderon (7.4), past his prime and missed half of the season due to injuries, the Knicks will do everything in their power to shed his salary 
Great Value: Galloway (minimum salary), provided scoring and averaged over 4 boards per game at only 6-2, not bad for an undrafted rookie 
2015 Cap $$$: 33.273 (5 players)
Key Free Agents: Larkin, Bargnani, Shved (restricted), Smith, Admunson, Acy (restricted) 

Team Stats:

Offensive Points Per Game: 30
Offensive Rating: 29 
Points Allowed: 21
Defensive Rating: 28
Assists Per Game: 19
Rebounds Per Game: 29
3-Point Percentage: 15
Field Goal Percentage: 28

Need: 
Scoring big man and a true PG
Options: 
Trade out or trade down if Russell or Okafor is off the board, if the stay the may takr Porzingis, Willie Cauley-Stein or Justise Winslow 
Synopsis: 
The Knicks are looking to move the #4 pick. Ideally they would like to move the pick and somehow move Calderon's salary both by draft night. Would they give up the #4 pick for a guy like Ty Lawson? How about Serge Ibaka and the #48 pick from the Thunder? 

They have a franchise player to build around in Melo. But they have very little help around him. The draft is only a small part of what they do this summer as they look to be very aggressive in free agency. They will make a big push for LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Monroe. They will also be looking to add a defensive presence on the wing with guys like DeMarre Carroll, Danny Green and Wes Matthews.  




ORLANDO MAGIC

Picks: 5, 51
2014-2015 Record: 21-57
Head Coach/GM: Scott Skiles/Rob Hennigan 
Starters/Core: 
Good C (8-11): Nic Vucevic (25.067/69.3/24)
Young PG: 2014 #10 pick  Elfrid Payton (17.488/82.0/21)
Young SG: 2013 #2 pick Victor Oladipo (17.173/76.0/23)
Above Average SF (11-17): Tobias Harris (17.684/61.3/23)
Below Average PF (27-30): Channing Frye (10.136/78.5/22)
Bench/Depth: 
SG: Evan FournierPF: 2014 #4 pick Aaron Gordon 
F/C: Kyle O'Quinn
SG: Willie Green SF: Moe Harkless
Over Priced: Frye (8.2), too much money for the worst starter on their team
Great Value: Payton (2.5 rookie contract), was right with Wiggins in the Rookie of the Year race 
2015 Cap $$$: 38.876 (8 players)
Key Free Agents: Harris (restricted), Green. O'Quinn (restricted)

Team Stats:

Offensive Points Per Game: 25
Offensive Rating: 27 
Points Allowed: 23
Defensive Rating: 24
Assists Per Game: 23
Rebounds Per Game: 25
3-Point Percentage: 15  
Field Goal Percentage: 15

Need: 
Big man that can defend and rebound, backup PG and SF 
Options: 

Kristpas Porzingis, Willie Cauley-Stein, Justise Winslow 
Synopsis: 
The Magic have a very good young team. They should be in the playoff hunt this season if Aaron Gordon steps up this year and/or they draft an instant impact rookie at #5. They need to draft a good defender as they ranked near the bottom in points allowed, defensive rating and rebounding. They have long defenders at guard in Oladipo and Payton, but Vucevic is a liability as a low post defender. They may have their choice of two long athletic big men that can block shots in Cauley-Stein and Porzingis 




SACRAMENTO KINGS
Picks:
 6

2014-2015 Record: 29-53
Head Coach/GM: George Karl/Pete D'Alessandro 
Starters/Core:
Emerging Superstar C (1-2): DeMarcus Cousins (32.801/68.3/25)
Good SF (7-10): Rudy Gay (21.742/72.0/29)
Average PG (17-25): Darren Collison 17.145/68.6/28)
Young SG: 2013 #7 pick Ben McLemore 
Has 11-20 SG potential
Below Average PF (27-30): Jason Thompson (10.86/81.6/29)
Bench/Depth: 
PG: 2013 #36 pick Ray McCallum 
SF: Omri Casspi 
G/F: 2014 #8 pick Nik Stauskas
CF: Derrick Williams 
PF: Carl Landry 
PG: Andre Miller 
Over Priced: Landry (6.5), too much for their 8th/9th man in the rotation 
Great Value: Cousins (15.85), max deal still isn't enough for arguably the best center in the NBA
2015 Cap $$$: 54.056 (8 players) 
Key Free Agents: Casspi, Williams (restricted), Miller

Team Stats:

Offensive Points Per Game: 14
Offensive Rating: 14 
Points Allowed: 28
Defensive Rating: 27
Assists Per Game: 26
Rebounds Per Game: 9
3-Point Percentage: 20  
Field Goal Percentage: 13

Needs: 
Defense, PF and PG upgrade, backup Center  
Options:
 

Emmanuel Mudiay, Willie Cauley-Stein, Kristpas Porzingas   
Synopsis: 
DeMarcus Cousins is as good as any big man in the NBA. Gay is solid at the three. The shooting guard combo of McLemore and Stauskas will need to take another next year. Collison and Thompson are average at best. Look for an upgrade at PG or PF. They will like take whichever of Mudiay, Cauley-Stein and Porzingis is available. Mudiay gives them a PG and makes Collison and/or McCallum expendable. Porzingis and WCS can give them a shot blocker to pair with Cousins. 



DENVER NUGGETS 
Picks: 
7, 57

2014-2015 Record: 30-52
Head Coach/GM: Mike Malone/Tim Connelly 
Starters/Core: 
Good PG (8-13) Ty Lawson (26.685/70.0/27)
Good PF (13-15) Kenneth Faried (19.445/78.3/25)
Below Average SF (24-30): Wilson Chandler (15.232/61.0/28)
Average SF (14-20, when healthy, which is never): Danilo Gallinari (13.471/57.6/27)
Young C: 2014 #16 pick Jusif Nurkic 
CG/6th man: Randy Foye (12.606/71.0/32)
Bench/Depth: 
F/C: JJ Hickson
G/F: Will Baron 
SG: 2014 #19 pick Gary Harris 
PG: Jameer Nelson 
PF: Darrell Arthur
Over Priced: Gallinari (11.6), made 184,000 per game played last year, will likely play for the veteran minimum after next season 
Great Value: Lawson (12.4), great value considering PG's Kyrie Irving, Derrick Rose and Deron Williams are on max deals and even guys that he's clearly better than like Eric Bledsoe and Ricky Rubio are making close to 14 million. 
2015 Cap $$$: 60.354 (9 players) 
Key Free Agents: Nelson (3.25 player option), Barton (restricted), Arthur

Team Stats:

Offensive Points Per Game: 12
Offensive Rating: 19 
Points Allowed: 27
Defensive Rating: 26
Assists Per Game: 13
Rebounds Per Game: 7
3-Point Percentage: 28
Field Goal Percentage: 26

Needs: 

SHOOTERS every where, starting SG, PG if they trade Lawson 
Options: 

Justise Winslow, Mario Hezonja, Stanley Johnson 
Synopsis: 
The Nuggets are a team in transition. Stud point guard Ty Lawson is unhappy and wants to be traded. If Denver can find the right deal, they will ship him out. As for the draft, they will likely be looking to add a scoring wing. They have some solid young role players up front in Faried and Nurkic. The key for this draft is to add a scorer and look to deal Lawson for at least a top 15 pick. 




DETROIT PISTONS  
Picks: 8, 38
2014-2015 Record: 32-50
Head Coach/GM: Stan Van Gundy/Jeff Bower
Starters/Core  
Good/emerging star C (8-13) Andre Drummond (24.181/74.3/22)
Good PF (7-12) Greg Monroe (23.503/77.3/25)
Average PG (17-25) Reggie Jackson (20.329/78.6/25)
Average PG (17-25) Brandon Jennings (20.299/67.0/26) 
Young SG: 2013 #8 pick Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 
Has 11-20 SG potential
Average PF (21-26) Ersan Ilyasova (13.763/62.0/28)
Bench/Depth:
SG: Jodie Meeks
SF: Tayshaun Prince
SG: 2014 #38 pick Spencer Dinwiddie 
PF: Anthony Tolliver 
Over Priced: Meeks (6.2), that's a lot of money for a scorer off the bench 
Great Value: Drummond (3.3), they get one more year of him on the cheap, will likely sign a max extension this summer 
2015 Cap $$$: 42.75 (10 players/2 of which are no longer on the roster) 
Key Free Agents:  Monroe, Jackson (restricted), Prince

Team Stats:

Offensive Points Per Game: 18
Offensive Rating: 15 
Points Allowed: 14
Defensive Rating: 19
Assists Per Game: 16
Rebounds Per Game: 4
3-Point Percentage: 17
Field Goal Percentage: 27

Needs: 
Starting SF, C/F depth
Options: 

Justise Winslow, Mario Hezonja, Stanley Johnson 
Synopsis: 
 

The Pistons have made it pretty clear that they do not intend to bring Greg Monroe back. They recently traded for Ersan Ilyasova to play the four. Coach Stan Van Gundy wants and needs shooters around Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson. At #8 they have a very good chance at either Winslow or Hezonja. If either guy is drafted there, they will have a chance to win the starting small forward job  right away. 




CHARLOTTE HORNETS 

Picks: 9, 39
2014-2015 Record: 33-49
Head Coach/GM: Steve Clifford/Rich Cho
Starters/Core  
Good/Star C (3-7): Al Jefferson (27.083/71.6/30)
Above average PG (14-16): Kemba Walker (22.793/72.3/25)
Average SF (24-30): Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (14.67/65.0/21)
Average SG (18-21): Gerald Henderson (12.859/75.0/20)
Young PF: 2013 #4 pick Cody Zeller (13.118/72.0/22) 
Bench/Depth: 
CG: Mo Williams  
PF: Marvin Williams  
PF: 2014 #9 pick Noah Vonleh 
F/C Bismack Biyombo 
F/C: Spencer Hawes 
Over Priced: Marvin Williams (7.0), solid role player, nut he's making over the mid level exception 
Great Value: Henderson (6.0), solid player at a solid price, they overpaid for Lance Stephenson last summer and quickly admitted their mistake and moved on from it 
2015 Cap $$$: 63.687 (11 players)
Key Free Agents: Mo Williams, Biyombo (restricted)

Team Stats:

Offensive Points Per Game: 28
Offensive Rating: 28 
Points Allowed: 7
Defensive Rating: 9
Assists Per Game: 28
Rebounds Per Game: 10
3-Point Percentage: 30  
Field Goal Percentage: 29

Needs:  

SHOOTING in the worst way, wing depth, backup PG  
Options:  

Devin Booker, Mario Hezonja, Stanley Johnson 
Synopsis:  
Coach Steve Clifford has brought a toughness and defensive mind set to the Hornets. In the past week, the direction of the 15-16 version of the Hornets has become clearer. Al Jefferson and Gerald Henderson both announced they will opt in to the final year of their contracts. They traded away Lance Stephenson to the Clippers for Spencer Hawes. With the Addition of Hawes, plus the fact that they use their past two first rounders on power forward likely means the end to the draft day mistake that was Bismack Biyombo. 

The Hornets will have a chance to draft a shooter at  #9. Devin Booker or Mario Hezonja are likely to be on the board there. Stanley Johnson is an interesting prospect but he's very similar to Michael Kidd Gilchrist. Don't be surprised if they draft another shooter at #39 as guys like Michael Frazier, Anthony Brown and Joseph Young could all be available there.   





2 comments:

  1. Dumbfuck; Gallo got extended for $34 mil over the next 2 years and will most definitely be one of the forwards on the the Eurobasket 2015 all tournament team and you predicted his next contract would be for veteran's minimum

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And it was a dumb move by Denver as he only played 53 games last year and once again the Nuggets missed the playoffs.

      All of that international play isn't helping him stay healthy in the NBA.

      He is a great shooter and scorer but he isn't worth the money if he can't stay healthy.

      Delete