Sunday, March 13, 2011

BUBBLE BREAKDOWN:

Several bubble teams went into the week with something to prove. Richmond and Penn St. both became locks by making it to their respective conference title games today. Richmond will be a favorite over Dayton while Penn St. will be a heavy underdog against the top team in the nation, Ohio St.

Other bubble teams like Marquette, Colorado, Michigan and Michigan St. won big games this week and boosted their resume to have at least 5 wins against the RPI top 50. Some people considered Tennessee a bubble team but with 8 wins vs. the RPI top 50 including a neutral court win over Pittsburgh I have absolutely no doubt they are a lock. FSU and George Mason lack a lot of key wins. However Mason has a RPI of 25 and had won 16 straight games before losing to VCU in the CAA semifinals. FSU's 11-5 record in the ACC and their win over Duke makes them a lock.

If I consider those teams locks then this leaves 5 bubble spots left.

So lets take a look at the blind resume's without any name attachments:

Team A: (19-13, 9-9) RPI-45, SOS-19. Record vs RPI top 50: 5-9, vs. RPI 51-100: 6-2, best wins: #6, #16, #40, #47, #49. 5-11 road/neutral. One horrible loss vs. #294 (neutral)

Team B: (21-11, 12-4) RPI-76, SOS-114. Record vs. RP top 50: 4-4, vs. RPI51-100: 1-3, best wins: #8, @#36, #48 (twice) and #48 is also a bubble team. 5-11 road/neutral. 4 sub .100 losses.

Team C: (22-8, 12-4) RPI-31, SOS-77. Record vs. RPI top 50: 1-4, vs. RPI 51-100: 9-3, best win: #49. 9-6 road/neutral. 1 sub .100 loss: @164.

Team D: (21-11, 9-7) RPI-48, SOS-40. Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-9, vs. RPI 51-100: 2-2, best wins: #8, 31, @36. 9-7 road/neutral. No bad losses.

Team E: (19-14, 10-8) RPI-69, SOS-39. Record vs. RPI top 50: 5-5, vs. RPI 51-100: 10-6, best wins: #11, #18, #33, @#36, #39. 7-10 road/neutral. 6 sub .100 losses including 3 sub .200 RPI losses

Team F: (25-8, 11-3) RPI-46, SOS-101. Record vs. RPI top 50: 1-4, vs. RPI 51-100: 2-2, best win: #23. 10-6 road/neutral. One horrible loss @320.

Team G: (21-11, 9-7) RPI-56, SOS-58. Record vs RPI top 50: 0-5, vs. RPI 51-100: 9-3, best wins: #54, #57 (twice), #61, #57 and #61 are also bubble teams. 5-9 road/neutral. 3 sub .100 losses.

Team H: (21-11, 9-7) RPI-61, SOS-74. Reocord vs RPI top 50: 2-5, vs RPI 51-100: 7-3, best wins: #4 and #40. 10-8 road/neutral. 3 sub .100 losses

Team I: (23-6, 12-3) RPI-35, SOS-140. Record vs RPI top 50: 1-4, vs. RPI 51-100: 2-1, best win: #41. 9-6 road/neutral. 1 sub .100 loss but has a very weak schedule with 18 sub .100 wins

Team J: (20-12, 9-7) RPI-57, SOS-38. Record vs. RPI top 50: 1-5, vs RPI 51-100: 6-6, best win: #29 (neut.). 8-8 road/neutral. only 1 sub .100 loss

Team K: (23-11, 12-6) RPI-49, SOS-87. Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-6, vs RPI 51-100: 5-2, best wins: @#20, #25 (neut.), #39. 11-8 road/ neutral. 3 sub .150 losses.

So much mediocrity with all of these teams. None of these teams can truly be upset if the fail to make the field.

I ranks the teams in this order Team B, Team A, Team G, Team H, and Team D. Team D is the last team to get in just beating team Team E.

I love Team B's conference record and the fact that they beat a top 10 team and swept a fellow bubble team in Team Team D.

I like Team A' record vs the RPI top 50 icluding two top 20 wins.

Even though Team G doesn't have any RPI top 50 wins, the fact remains that they have 3 wins against the other bubble teams in their conference and two of those wins came in the past week and a half.

After that you really need to nit pick to find another deserving team. Teams I, J, F, and C only have one win vs. the RPI top 50 none of them have a top 10 win like Team H does. So I have Team H in and have no problem leaving the other teams out.

Team K is interesting. They have 3 good wins but 3 sub .150 RPI losses that pretty much cancel out their big wins.

So that leaves Team D and Team E for the FINAL SPOT in the dance. Both have some good wins, both play in a major league and both teams went on the road and beat the #36 team. Team E has more top 50 RPI wins but I just can't get over the 6 that's right 6 sub .100 RPI losses. Team d has zero bad losses so I put Team D in over Team E.

With the 3 extra spots this year it will not surprise me if any of these bubble teams get in or are left out.

So here are the Teams:

Team B: Alabama
Team A: Illinois
Team G: Clemson
Team H: Virginia Tech
Team D: Georgia
Team E: USC
Team F: St. Mary's
Team C: UAB
Team I: Harvard
Team J: Boston College
Team K: VCU

My 2011 Bracket

EAST

Cleveland
1)OHIO ST. (playing in Big Ten title today)
16)Play-In-Alabama St. (SWAC) vs. UNC-Ashville (Big South)

8)George Mason
9) FSU

Chicago
5)Arizona
12)Play In-Georgia vs. Virginia Tech

4)Syracuse
13)Princeton (Ivy)

Tulsa
6)Cincinnati
11)Alabama (bubble 1)

3)Texas
14)Bucknell

Tucson
7)Utah St. (WAC)
10)Michigan

2)San Diego St. (MWC)
15)Northern Colorado (Big Sky)


SOUTHWEST

Tulsa
1)Kansas
16)Play In-Texas-San Antonio (Southland) vs. Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt)

8)Old Dominion (CAA)
9)Tennessee

Tucson
5)St. John's
12)Gonzaga (WCC)

4)Wisconsin
13)Indiana St. (MVC)

DC
6)Kansas St.
11)Villanova

3)UConn (Big East)
14)LIU-Brooklyn (NEC)

Denver
7)Xavier
10)UCLA

2)BYU
15)UCSB (Big West)


SOUTHEAST

Charlotte
1)ACC Champ-Duke/UNC
16)Hampton

8)Penn St. (playing in Big Ten title today)
9)Butler (Horizon)

DC
5)Texas A&M
12)Play In-Clemson vs. Illinois

4)Louisville
13)Belmont (A-Sun)

Tampa
6)Georgetown
11)Colorado

3)Florida (playing in SEC title today
14)Morehead (OVC)

Chicago
7)Temple
10)Memphis (USA)

2)Notre Dame
15)Akron (MAC)


WEST

Cleveland
1)Pittsburgh
16)Boston U. (AEC)

8)Washington (PAC 10)
9)UNLV

Denver
5)Vandy
12)Marquette

4)Purdue
13)Oakland (Summit)

Tampa
6)West Virginia
11)Michigan St.

3)Kentucky (palying in SEC title today)
14)St. Peter's (MAAC)

Charlotte
7)Mizzou
10)Richmond (likely A 10 champ)

2)ACC #2 UNC/Duke
15)Wofford (SoCon)

NOTE: If Dayton upsets Ricmond today in the Atlantic 10 championship then they will become the 11 seed in Alabama's spot in the East region, thus dropping Alabama into the play-in game in the East and dropping Georgia out of the tournament. Also if Richmond loses then I will drop the to an 11 seed in the West and move Michigan St. to a 10 seed in the West.

Last 4 In:
Georgia
Virginia Tech
Clemson
Illinois

Other bubble teams barely in:
Alabama
Marquette
Colorado
Michigan St.

First 4 Out:
USC
St. Mary's
Harvard
UAB

Next 4 Out:
Boston College
VCU
Cleveland St.
Missouri St.

Conference Breakdown:
Big East-11
Big Ten-7
Big 12-6
SEC-6
ACC-5
MWC-3
PAC 10-3
Atlantic 10-3
CAA-2
22 One bid leagues

Interesting possible matchups with this bracket. The Southwest region would have some amazing point guard matchups in the 2nd round and sweet 16 with this bracket. BYU's Jimmer Fredette vs. Xavier's Tu Holloway and UConn's Kemba Walker vs. Kansas St.'s Jacob Pullen. Then hopefully an Elite 8 showdown between the two best players in the nation in Jimmer and Kemba.

Another great Sweet 16 possibility would have two hot experienced teams in the Southeast region with Notre Dame playing Florida.

If I were to pick a first round upset in this bracket it would have to be #12 seed Gonzaga over #5 seed St. John's. Gonzaga is hot while St. John's will have to deal with the loss of versatile wing D.J. Kennedy.