Sunday, March 16, 2014

NCAA 2014 My Final Bracketology

SOUTH (Memphis) 

ORLANDO
1)Florida (SEC)
16)Play In: Coastal Carolina (Big South)-203.0 vs. Mount St Mary's (NEC)-206.3

8)Ok St.
9)UMass

SAN DIEGO
5)New Mexico (MWC)
12)North Dakota St. (Summit)

4)UCLA (PAC 12)
13)SFA (Southland)

RALEIGH
6)Baylor
11)Harvard (Ivy)

3)Duke
14)Louisiana Lafayette (Sun Belt)-77.0

MILWAUKEE
7)Memphis
10)Providence (Big East)

2)Michigan
15)Easten Kentucky (OVC)-124.0


WEST (ANAHEIM) 

SAN DIEGO
1)Arizona
16)Weber St (Big Sky)

8)Texas
9)Tennessee

SPOKANE
5)UNC
12)Play In: Nebraska (Bubble #2 vs. BYU (Bubble #5)

4)San Diego St.
13)New Mexico St. (WAC)-77.6

MILWAUKEE
6)UConn
11)Colorado

3)Wisconsin
14)NC Central (MEAC)-114.6

ST LOUIS
7)Gonzaga (WCC)
10)St Joe's (Atlantic 10)

2)Kansas
15)American (Patriot)


MIDWEST (Indy)

ST LOUIS
1)Wichita St. (MVC)
16)Play In: Cal-Poly (Big West) vs.Texas Southern (SWAC)

8)Oregon
9)Pittsburgh

SAN ANTONIO
5)Ohio St
12)Play In: Dayton (Bubble #3) vs. Xavier (Bubble #4)

4)Creighton
13)Delaware (CAA)

SPOKANE
6)Kentucky
11)Iowa

3)Iowa St. (Big 12)
14)Mercer (A-Sun)

ORLANDO
7)St Louis
10)Stanford

2)Louisville (American)
15)UW-Milwaukee (Horizon)


EAST (NYC)

RALEIGH
1)Virginia (ACC)
16)Albany (AEC)

8)GWU
9)Kansas St.

SAN ANTONIO
5)Cincinnati
12)Tulsa (USA)

4)Michigan St. (Big Ten)
13)Manhattan (MAAC)

BUFFALO
6)VCU
11)Arizona St. (Bubble #1)

3)Syracuse
14)Western Michigan (MAC)

BUFFALO
7)Okalhoma
10)SMU

2)Villanova
15)Wofford (SoCon)



CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
LOCKS:
BIG 12-7
Big Ten-5
ACC-5
PAC 12-5
American-5
Atlantic 10-5
Big East-3
SEC-3
MWC-2
WCC-1


BUBBLE:
Big Ten-2
ACC-2
PAC 12-2
Big East-2
SEC-2
WCC-1
USA-2

41 Locks
22 One Bid Leagues
53 spots taken
5 Bubble Spots are available



MY S Curve
with computer average of RPI/BPI/KenPom and overall record

1 Seeds
1. Florida-2.0 (32-2)  South
2. Arizona-1.3 (30-4)  West
3. Wichita St.-3.6 (34-0)  Midwest
4. Virginia-7.1 (25-6)  East

2 Seeds
5. Villanova-6.0 (28-4)  East
6. Louisville-8.0 (26-5)  Midwest
7. Kansas-5.6 (24-9)  West
8. Michigan-13.6 (25-8)  South

3 Seeds
9. Duke-7.3 (26-8)  South
10. Wisconsin-9.3 (26-7)  West
11. Iowa St-14.3 (26-7)  Midwest
12. Syracuse-13.6 (27-5)  East

4 Seeds
13. Michigan St-15.3 (26-8)  East
14. Creighton-10.6 (26-7)  Midwest
15. San Diego St.-20.3 (29-4)  West
16. UCLA-15.6 (26-8)  South

5 Seeds
17. New Mexico-23.3 (27-6)  South
18. UNC-26.6 (23-9)  West
19. Ohio St-17.3 (25-9)  Midwest
20. Cincinnati-22.3 (27-6)  East

6 Seeds
21. VCU-12.6  (26-8)  East
22. UK-14.6  (24-10)   Midwest
23. UConn-25.3 (26-8)  West
24. Baylor-32.3 (22-11)  South

7 Seeds
25. Memphis-41.0 (22-9)  South
26. Gonzaga-22.3 (27-6)  West
27. St Louis-30.0 (25-6)  Midwest
28. Oklahoma-28.0 (23-9)  East

8 Seeds
29. GWU-37.0 (24-8)  East
30. Oregon-26.6 (23-9)  Midwest
31. Texas-40.0  (23-10)  West
32. OK St-28.6  (21-12)  South

9 Seeds
UMass-34.3 (24-8)  South
Tennessee-28.3 (20-12)  West
Pittsburgh-23.3  (23-9)   Midwest
Kansas St-48.3  (20-12)  East

10 Seeds
SMU-40.0  (23-9)  East
Stanford-37.0 (21-12)  Midwest
St Joe's-49.0 (23-9)  West
Providence-42.6 (23-11)  South

11 Seeds
Harvard-41.0 (26-4)  South
Colorado-49.3 (23-11)  West
Iowa-34.3 (19-12)  Midwest
Arizona St-42.3 (21-11)  East

12 Seeds
Tulsa-74.6  (21-12)  East
Dayton-47.0 (23-10)  Midwest play in
Xavier-48.0  (21-12)  Midwest play in
Nebraska-50.3 (19-12)  West play in
BYU-41.6 (23-11)   West play in
North Dakota St-51.3 (25-6)  South

13 Seeds
SFA-63.3      (27-2)  South
New Mexico St-75.6  (26-9)  West
Delaware-91.3  (25-9)  Midwest
Manhattan-68.6 (25-7)  East

14 Seeds
Western Michigan-100.3 (23-9)  East
Mercer-95.0  (26-7)  Midwest
NC Central-92.6 (28-5)  West
Louisiana Lafayette-114.3 (23-11)  South

15 Seeds
Eastern Kentucky-124.3 (22-9) South
American-127.0  (20-12)  West
UW-Milwaukee-147.6 (20-13)  Midwest
Wofford-170.0 (17-12)  East

16 Seeds
Alabany-202.0 (18-14)  East
Cal Poly-193.6 (13-19) Midwest play in
Texas Southern-247.3 (19-14) Midwest play in
Weber St-158.6 (17-11)  West
Coastal Carolina-203.0 (21-12)  South play in
Mount St Mary's-206.3 (16-16)  South play in







NCAA 2014 The Blind Bubble

It's Selection Sunday!!!!!!!!!!!  Here is how I rank the bubble teams without an bias using the blind bubble.

Key:
Computer Average is the average of RPI, BPI and Ken Pom rankings
SOS is strength of schedule
The records are vs. the RPI rankings NOT the AP or coaches poll.


Team A (23-11)
Computer Average: 41.6
Road/Neutral: 9-10
Last 12: 10-2
Top 25: 1-5
26-50: 2-1
51-100: 5-1
Sub 100 losses: 4 (at 129, at 158, at 174, at 175)
SOS: 17
The Good: Computer numbers and good
The Bad: 4 horrible losses

Team B (25-6)
Computer Average: 53.3
Road/Neutral: 13-6
Last 12: 9-3
1-25: 0-1
26-50: 1-0
51-100: 2-3
Sub 100 losses: 2 (at 152, at 126)
SOS: 127
The Good: Computer numbers and overall record
The Bad: Bad schedule with only one quality win @ #35

Team C (19-12)
Computer Average: 50.3
Road/Neutral: 4-11
Last 12: 9-3
1-25: 3-7
26-50: 0-0
51-100: 4-2
Sub 100 losses: 3 (152-neutral, at 140, at 111)  
SOS: 27
The Good: 3 top 25 wins and played a very tough schedule
The Bad: 3 bad losses, bad road/neutral record

Team D (23-10)
Computer Average: 47.0
Road Neutral: 9-6
Last 12: 10-2
1-25: 2-1
26-50: 2-5
51-100: 6-1
Sub 100 losses: 3 (at 133, 154 home, at 171)
SOS: 54
The Good: Very good as of late, 4 top 50 wins
The Bad: 3 sub 100 losses

Team E (21-11)
Computer Average: 42.3
Road/Neutral: 5-10
Last 12: 6-6
1-25: 1-3 (#2 team in nation)
26-50: 3-4
51-100: 4-1
Sub 100 losses: 3 (110-neutral, at 103, 101 home)
SOS: 58
The Good: 4 top 50 wins including a top 5 win
The Bad: Very Average everything, nothing stands out

Team F (21-12)
Computer Average: 48.0
Road/Neutral: 6-11
Last 12 6-6
1-25: 2-4 (top 10 win)
26-50: 1-2
51-100: 5-3
Sub 100 losses: 3 (171-neutral, swept by the #125 team)
SOS: 40
The Good: 2 top 25 wins including a neutral site win over the #11 team)
The Bad: 3 bad losses, bad road team

Team G (20-13)
Computer Average: 54.6
Road/Neutral: 4-10
Last 12; 5-7
1-25: 2-7
26-50: 1-2
51-100: 3-2
Sub 100 losses: 2 (at 140, 123 home)
SOS: 6
The Good: tough schedule with 2 great wins
The Bad: struggling late and bad road/neutral record

Team H (22-11)
Computer Average: 59.6
Road/Neutral: 6-9
Last 12: 6-6
1-25: 0-3
26-50: 2-1
51-100: 5-5
Sub 100 losses: 2 (at 124, at 114)
SOS: 47
The Good: 2 top 50 wins
The Bad: computer numbers, no top 25 wins
 3-7 4-2 117 144 6-6 1-3 1-1 5-5 10-2 5-0 0-0 50

Team I (20-13)
Computer Average: 49.0
Road/neutral: 6-7
Last 12 8-4
1-25: 1-5
26-50: 0-2
51-100: 5-2
Sub 100 losses: 2 (at 151, 111-neutral)
SOS: 64
The Good: Playing well lately
The Bad: only 1 top 50 win with 8 chances, average computer numbers

Team J (21-13)
Computer Average: 61-6
Last: 7-5
1-25: 1-6
26-50: 2-2
51-100: 3-1
Sub 100 losses: 3 (at 112, 110-home, 102-home)
SOS: 21
The Good: schedule and a top 10 win
The Bad: computer numbers and blew many chances at quality wins

Team K (19-13)
Computer Average: 46.3
Road/neutral: 10-8
Last 12: 6-6
1-25: 2-8
26-50: 1-0
51-100: 2-4
Sub 100 losses: 1 (110 home)
SOS: 31
The Good: schedule with 2 good wins, above 500 road/neutral
The Bad: Very average everywhere, blew many chances at quality wins

Team L (27-7)
Computer Average: 48.6
Road/neutral: 14-6
Last 12: 10-2
1-25: 0-0
26-50: 2-2
51-100: 3-4
Sub 100 losses: 1 (at 217)
SOS: 213
The Good: last 12, road record, overall record
The Bad: you just CAN'T lose to a sub 200 team and a horrible SOS

Team M (19-13)
Computer Average: 67.0
Road Neutral: 5-9
Last 12: 5-7
1-25: 1-5 (top 3 win)
26-50: 3-5
51-100: 1-1
Sub 100 losses: 2 (at 169, at 107)
SOS: 42
The Good: a top 3 win and 4 top 50 wins
The Bad: Horrible computer numbers, bad in last 12, below average on the road



My Rankings:
Team E
Team C
Team D
Team F
Team A
Team J
Team I
Team K
Team B
Team G
Team L
Team H
Team M

Last 5 in:
Team E is Arizona St
Team C is Nebraska
Team D is Dayton
Team F is Xavier
Team A is BYU

First 4 Out:
Team J is NC St
Team H is St. John's
Team K is FSU
Team B is Southern Miss

Next 4 Out
Team G is Minnesota
Team L is Louisiana Tech '
Team H is Missouri
Team M is CAL

Friday, March 14, 2014

2014 NCAA Bracketology

SOUTH (Memphis) 

ORLANDO
1)Florida (SEC)
16)Play In: Coastal Carolina (Big South)-203.0 vs. Mount St Mary's (NEC)-206.3

8)Pittsburgh
9)Stanford

SAN ANTONIO
5)UConn
12)Play In: Dayton (Bubble #5)-47.0 vs. Providence (Bubble #8)-52.6, NOTE: Plays in Conference Title tomorrow night

4)Iowa St.
13)Toledo (MAC)-70.3

MILWAUKEE
6)St. Louis
11)Louisiana Tech (USA)-52.3

3)Wisconsin
14)Georgia St. (Sun Belt)-77.0

RALEIGH
7)Texas
10)SMU

2)Duke
15)Easten Kentucky (OVC)-124.0


WEST (ANAHEIM) 

SAN DIEGO
1)Arizona (PAC 12)
16)Weber St (Big Sky)

8)Memphis
9)OK St.

SPOKANE
5)VCU
12)Play In: Xavier (Bubble #6)-48.0 vs. BYU (Bubble #7)-41.6

4)San Diego St.
13)New Mexico St. (WAC)-77.6

SPOKANE
6)Oklahoma
11)Arizona St. (Bubble #2)-42.3

3)Creighton
14)NC Central (MEAC)-114.6

MILWAUKEE
7)Gonzaga (WCC)
10)Tennessee (Bubble #1)-30.0  NOTE: Is still alive in Conference Tournament

2)Michigan
15)Long Beach St. (Big West)-147.0


MIDWEST (Indy)

ST LOUIS
1)Wichita St. (MVC)
16)Play In: Wofford (SoCon)-170.0 vs. SWAC Champ (Texas Southern or Prairie View A&M)

8)Oregon
9)Kansas St

SAN DIEGO
5)UNC
12)North Dakota St (Summit)-51.3

4)Michigan St.
13)SFA (Southland)-69.3

ST. LOUIS
6)Kentucky
11)Nebraska (bubble #4)-48.3

3)Kansas
14)Mercer (A-Sun)-95.0

ORLANDO
7)UCLA
10)UMass

2)Louisville
15)American (Patriot)-127.0


EAST (NYC)

RALEIGH
1)Virginia
16)America East Champ (Stonybrook or Albany)

8)GWU
9)Colorado

SAN ANTONIO
5)Ohio St.
12)Harvard (IVY)-41.0

4)Cincinnati
13)Manhattan (MAAC)-68.6

BUFFALO
6)Baylor
11)St. Joe's (Bubble #3)-53.6 NOTE: Is still alive in Conference Tournament

3)Syracuse
14)Delaware (CAA)-91.3

BUFFALO
7)New Mexico
10)Iowa

2)Villanova
15)UW-Milwaukee (Horizon)-147.6



CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN
LOCKS:
BIG 12-7
Big Ten-5
ACC-5
PAC 12-5
American-5
Atlantic 10-4
Big East-2
SEC-2
MWC-2
WCC-1


BUBBLE:
Big Ten-2
ACC-1
PAC 12-2
Big East-3
SEC-3
WCC-1
USA-2

39Locks
21 One Bid Leagues
60 spots taken therefore,
8 Bubble Spots are available


GREAT POTENTIAL MATCHUP WITH THIS BRACKET:

SECOND ROUND:
SOUTH
7)Texas vs. 10)SMU
Battle for the Lone Star State will remind fans of the old Southwest Conference days.  Also a good coaching matchup between Texas' Rick Barnes and SMU's legendary coach Larry Brown

EAST
5)Ohio St vs. 12)Harvard
Battle between two of the better defensive teams in the nation.

THIRD ROUND
WEST
1)Arizona vs. 9)OK St
Marcus Smart and OK St will be a tough 2nd round game for Zona.  I wonder if star Freshman Aaron Gordon would guard Smart for most of the game.

MIDWEST
3)Kansas vs. 6)UK
NBA scouts will be drooling if these two teams play.  Andrew Wiggins vs Juluis Randle and James Young. Will Kansas have star big man Joel Embiid back by the 2nd round?  SHould be very interesting

EAST
4)Cincinnati vs. 5)Ohio St.
It won't quite be Oscar Robertson vs. John Havlecik and Jerry Lucas but Sean Kilpatrick vs. Aaron Craft would pit one of the nation's best scorers in Kilpatrick against one the best defenders in the land in Craft.

SWEET SIXTEEN
WEST
2)Michigan vs. 3)Creighton
Doug McDermott is the best player in the nation. Michigan has two great players in Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III.  This could be a very fun game to watch with a lot of scoring.

EAST
2)Villanova vs. 3)Syracuse
Requiem for the Big East!!!! I think so.  I would love to see these two teams go at it in NYC.

ELITE EIGHT
SOUTH
1)Florida vs. 2)Duke
Florida has Coach Billy Donovan, Duke has Coach K.
Florida has four experienced Seniors and a great shooting Soph in Michael Frazier, Duke has the most talented player in the country in Jabari Parker.
Florida has suffered three straight Elite 8 losses. Both teams have the talent to WIN IT ALL

MIDWEST
1)Wichita St. vs. either 2)Louisville or 3)Kansas
Either way it will make for a great story line as the Wichita St. Shockers will have their unbeaten season tested with Louisville in a rematch of last year's thrilling Final Four game.  Or they will face in state power Kansas for a chance to go to end up in Arlington, Texas in the Final Four.