Sunday, March 13, 2016

NCAA 2016: My S-Curve vs. The Actual NCAA S-Curve


My S Curve 
with overall record and RPI Ranking
Conference Champs are in bold
At large bids are not
Last 4 In are in red
16 seed play in game teams are in blue


MIDWEST    SOUTH        EAST            WEST             
1. Kansas       (29-4)-1 
2. Virginia   (26-7)-3  3. Villanova (29-5)-3  4. Michigan St (29-5)-10 
8. Xavier         (27-5)-7  7. Oklahoma (25-7)-6  6. UNC    
(28-6)-5 
5. Oregon (28-6)-2 
9. Miami         (25-7)-9  10. Utah  
(29-4)-8 
11. Indiana (25-7)-20  12.WVU  
(26-8)-11 
16. TX A&M
(26-8)-17 
15. Purdue
(26-8)-15 
14. UK    
(26-8)-12 
13. Duke  
(23-10)-20 
17. Arizona
(25-8)-26 
18. Iowa St.  (21-11)-23 19. Maryland
(25-8)-14 
20. Baylor
(21-11)-25 
24. Texas
(20-10)-27 
23. Notre Dame
(21-11)-31 
22. CAL
(23-10)-16 
21. Seton Hall (25-8)-19
25. Iowa
(21-10)-29 
26. Dayton (25-7)-22  27. St. Joe's (27-7)-21 28. Wisconsin (20-12)-43 
32. Providence (23-10)-40 31. Oregon St. (19-12)-33  30. TX Tech (19-12)-36  29. Colorado (21-11)-35 
33. Cincinnati (22-10)-48 34. UConn 
(24-10)-32
35. VCU  (24-10)-37 36. Butler (20-10)-56
40. USC  (21-12)-51 39. Michigan (21-12)-57  38. St. Bonaventure  (22-8)-30 37. Gonzaga   (25-7)-45
41. Wichita St. (23-8)-47 42. S Dakota St.  (24-7)-28 43. St. Mary's (26-5)-38 44. Pittsburgh  (20-11)-53


46. Temple  (21-11)-59 45. South Carolina (23-8)-65
50. Fresno St. (23-9)-66  49. Northern Iowa (21-12)-69 48. Yale (21-6)-44 47. UNC-Wilmington (23-7)-46 
51. Hawaii (25-5)-80  52. Buffalo (19-14)-91 53. ARK-Little Rock (27-4)-42 54. TENN-Chatt. (27-5)-50
58. Stonybrook (24-6)-60 57. SF Austin (27-5)-61 56. Iona (22-10)-77 55. Middle Tenn. (22-9)-78
59. WISC-Green Bay (21-12)-112 60. CS-Bakersfield    (21-8)-117  61. UNC-Ashville (20-11)-137 62. Weber St.  (23-8)-108
66. FL-Fulf Coast (16-13)-214 64. Austin Peay (16-17)-189 65. Southern (19-12)-186 63. Hampton (20-10)-154
67. Fairleigh Dickinson (17-14)-204
68. Holy Cross (14-19)-248


Acutual Bracket S Curve 
with overall record and RPI Ranking
Conference Champs are in bold
At large bids are not
Last 4 In are in red
16 seed play in game teams are in blue

SOUTH MIDWEST   EAST            WEST             
1. Kansas    (29-4)-1 
2. Virginia (26-7)-3  3. UNC (28-6)-5   4. Oregon (28-6)-2 
8. Villanova (29-5)-3 7. Michigan St (29-5)-10   6. Xavier     (27-5)-7 5. Oklahoma (25-7)-6
9. Miami     (25-7)-9  10. Utah (29-4)-8  11.WVU (26-8)-11   12.TX A&M (26-8)-17 
16.  CAL (23-10)-16 15. Iowa St.  (21-11)-23  14. UK    (26-8)-12  13. Duke    (23-10)-20 
17. Maryland (25-8)-14  18. Purdue (26-8)-15  19. Indiana (25-7)-20 20. Baylor (21-11)-25 
24. Arizona  (25-8)-26  23. Seton Hall (25-8)-19 22. Notre Dame (21-11)-31  21. Texas (20-10)-27 
25. Iowa (21-10)-29  26. Dayton (25-7)-22  27. Wisconsin (20-12)-43  28. Oregon St. (19-12)-33 
32. Colorado (21-11)-35  31. TX Tech (19-12)-36  30. USC  (21-12)-51 29. St. Joe's  (27-7)-21
33. UConn (24-10)-32 34. Butler  (20-10)-56 35. Providence (23-10)-40 36. Cincinnati (22-10)-48
40. Temple (21-11)-59 39. Syracuse (19-13)-71  38. Pittsburgh  (20-11)-53 37. VCU  (24-10)-37
41. Wichita St. (23-8)-47 42. Gonzaga   (25-7)-45 43. Michigan (21-12)-57  46. Northern Iowa (21-12)-69 
45. Vandy  (19-13)-63
44. Tulsa  (20-11)-58
50. S Dakota St.  (24-7)-28 49. ARK-Little Rock (27-4)-4248. TENN-Chatt. (27-5)-50 47. Yale (21-6)-44
51. Hawaii (25-5)-80  52. Iona (22-10)-77 53. Stonybrook (24-6)-60 54. UNC-Wilmington (23-7)-46 
58. Buffalo (19-14)-91 57. Fresno St. (23-9)-66 56. SF Austin (27-5)-61 55. WISC-Green Bay (21-12)-112
59. UNC-Ashville (20-11)-137 60. Middle Tenn. (22-9)-78 61. Weber St.  (23-8)-108 62. CS-Bakersfield    (21-8)-117 
64. Austin Peay (16-17)-189 63. Hampton (20-10)-154 66. FL-Fulf Coast (16-13)-214 65. Southern (19-12)-186


67. Fairleigh Dickinson (17-14)-204 68. Holy Cross (14-19)-248

Saturday, March 12, 2016

2016 BRACKETOLOGY

MIDWEST (Cleveland)

DES MOINES
1)Kansas (Big 12)
16)Play In: Fairleigh Dickinson-205 (NEC) vs. (SWAC Champ): Southern-196/Jackson St-220

8)St. Joe's (Bubble #2) (25-7)-27
9)Cincinnati (Bubble #2) (22-10)-47

SPOKANE
5)Arizona
12)South Dakota St.-31 (Summit)

4)Texas A&M
13)(Big West Champ) Long Beach St.77 vs. Hawaii-87


PROVIDENCE
6)Texas
11)Wichita St. (Bubble #8) (23-8)-46

3)Miami
14)Stonybrook-64 (AEC)

ST. LOUIS
7)Iowa
10)USC (Bubble #7) (21-12)-51

2)Xavier
15)Wisconsin-Green Bay-112 (Horizon)




SOUTH (Houston) 

RALEIGH
1)Virginia (ACC)
16)Austin Peay-187 (OVC)

8)Oregon St.
9)UConn (projected American Champ) 

DENVER
5)Iowa St.
12)(MAC Champ) Akron-29 vs. Buffalo-97

4)Purdue
13)Northern Iowa (MVC)


DENVER
6)Notre Dame
11)Gonzaga-43 (WCC)

3)Utah
14)(Southland Champ) Stephen F Austin-71 vs. TAMU-Chorpus Christi-82


OKLAHOMA CITY
7)Providence
10)Michigan (Bubble #6) (21-11)-56

2)Oklahoma
15)(WAC Champ)New Mexico St.-106 vs. Cal-Bakersfield-185



EAST (Philadelphia)

BROOKLYN
1)Villanova (Big East)
16)Play In: Florida Gulf Coast-214 (Atlantic Sun) vs. Holy Cross-248 (Patriot)

8)Texas Tech
9)VCU (Bubble #3) (23-9)-41

BROOKLYN
5)Maryland
12)Yale-42 (Ivy League)

4)UK (SEC)
13) (Sun Belt Champ) Projected-Arkansas-Little Rock-50

IOWA CITY
6)California
11)PLAY IN: St.Mary's (Bubble #9) (23-9)-37 vs. Temple (Bubble #12) (21-10)-59

3)Indiana
14)Iona-78 (MAAC)


RALEIGH
7)Seton Hall
10)St. Bonaventure (Bubble #5) (22-8)-30

2)UNC
15)UNC-Ashville-137 (Big South)



WEST (LA) 

ST. LOUIS
1)Michigan St. (Big Ten)
16)(MEAC Champ) Hampton-164 vs. South Carolina St.-202

8)Colorado
9)Butler (Bubble #4) (21-10)-58

PROVIDENCE
5)Baylor
12) UNC-Wilmington (CAA)-65

4)Duke
13)UT-Chattanooga (SoCon)-62

OKLAHOMA CITY
6)Dayton (Atlantic 10)
11)PLAY IN: South Carolina (Bubble #4) (23-8)-62 vs. Pittsburgh (Bubble #11) (20-11)-51

3)West Virginia
14) (USA Champ)-Middle Tennessee-89 vs. Old Dominion-138

SPOKANE
7)Wisconsin
10)San Diego St-32 (projected MWC Champ)

2)Oregon (PAC 12)
15)(Big Sky Champ)-Weber St.-116 vs. Montana-142

RPI Rankings are the numbers by the teams
I have bubble teams that are still alive in their conference tournaments in italics


LAST 4 BYE: 
St. Bonaventure
Michigan
USC
Wichita St.

LAST 4 IN: 
St. Mary's
South Carolina
Pittsburgh
Temple

FIRST 4 OUT: 
Vanderbilt (19-13)-63
Florida (19-14)-54
Syracuse (19-13)-71
George Washington (23-10)-67


NEXT 4 OUT: 
Monmouth (27-7)-53
Georgia (19-12)-60
Davidson (19-11)-57
Tulsa (20-11)-61

Should of scheduled better
Princeton (21-6)-39
Valpariso (24-6)-49
Hofstra (23-9)-55
Any top 40 RPI team from a small conference that loses today.




CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN:
Big 12-7
Big Ten-7
PAC 12-7
ACC-6
Big East-5
Atlantic 10-4
SEC-3
American-3
WCC-2
MVC-2

22 Projected One Bid Leagues

NOTE:
Dayton is my projected Atlantic 10 Champ, however St. Joe's, VCU and Davidson (Next 4 Out) are all still alive in the conference tournament.

CONTINGENCY PLANS:
If San Diego St. loses to Fresno St., Gonzaga will replace them as the 10 seed in the West Regional.
San Diego St. would then be one of the First Four Out. San Diego St.has a high RPI but a bad resume with only one Top 50 win (that came back in November), plus a neutral site loss to a team with a RPI of 302! The Aztecs pretty much need a win tonight>

Temple and UConn play in the American semifinals today and the winner SHOULD be able to beat the winner of the other semifinal game which pits Memphis vs, Tulane. If the Memphis were to win the American they would become the 11 seed in the Midwest. That would drop Wichita St, down to the play in game and drop Temple to the First Four Out. If Tulane were to win all hell could break loose. Tulane entered the American tournament with only 10 wins and a sub 250 RPI. If they were to win it, one would have to think that they could be no higher than a 15 seed.

If a team other than Arkansas-Little Rock wins the Sun Belt, that team would drop to the 14 seed in the East and Iona would move up to a 13 seed.

Great possible match-ups if this bracket were to come to fruition:

FIRST ROUND

SOUTH: 6)Notre Dame vs. 11)Gonzaga
No 5 through 7 seed will want to see Gonzaga in round one. The Zags have two first round NBA prospects in Domantas Sabonis and Kyle Wiltjer. Notre Dame has proven they can hand with a team with two top prospects as they were able to defeat Duke's great duo of Brandon Ingram and Gryason Allen on Thursday.


SECOND ROUND:

EAST: 4)UK vs. 5)Maryland
A matchup between possibly the best two point guards in the nation in UK's Tyler Ulis (16.6 ppg and 7.3 apg) and Maryland's Melo Trimble (14.5 ppg and 5,2 apg). Great guard play and coaching matter the most in the tournament.

SOUTH: 2)Oklahoma vs. 7)Providence
Oklahoma's Buddy Hield (25.0 ppg, 5.6 rpg and 49%) is the favorite to win the Naismith and Wooden Awards. However Providence's Kris Dunn (16.0 ppg, 6.4 apg, 5.5 rpg and 2.5 spg) is right behind him. I really hope the selection committee pits these two against each other.

SWEET 16

WEST:  1) Michigan St. vs. 4) Duke
Coach K vs, Coach Izzo, need I say more? Actually I will say more. This game would also have great deal of star power with MSU's Denzel Valentine going up against Ingram and Allen.


MIDWEST:  1) Kansas vs. 5) Arizona
Arizona has mostly underachieved this year, but they are one of the few teams in the country that has the size, experience and coaching to hang with the top team in the country, Many brackets will have Kansas as their pick to win it all. The Arizona Wildcats could end up destroying a lot of brackets this March.

SOUTH:  1) Virginia vs. 5) Iowa St.
A game between arguably the best defense in the country in Virginia and the best offense in the country in Iowa St. Virginia is second in the nation in points allowed and also second in the nation in defensive efficiency. Iowa St. averages 81.8 ppg which is 15th in the country and is second in the nation in offensive efficiency. Iowa St, has struggled against great defensive teams as they lost twice to both Oklahoma and West Virginia.

ELITE 8

EAST: 1) Villanova vs. 2) UNC
Two very experienced and athletic teams meet in Philly for a trip to the Final Four.





Sunday, March 6, 2016

NFL 2016 FREE AGENT RANKINGS



TIERS and MARKET VALUE 


Tier 1: FRANCHISED PLAYERS 
Salaries are set based on the top 5 player at their respective positions 

1. Von Miller
2. Josh Norman 
3. Muhammed Wilkerson
4. Alshon Jeffery
5. Eric Berry
6. Cordy Glenn

Tier 2: 

Young high paid guys due to upside and positional value
Market Value:
All of these players should see more than 10 million per year and some could see over 20 million guaranteed

7. Olivier Vernon

8. Kirk Cousins 
9. Malik Jackson
10. Kelechi Osemele
11. Janoris Jenkins 
12. Jason Pierre-Paul 
13. Sam Bradford 
16. Trumaine Johnson
17. Brock Osweiler  
18. Russell Okung

Tier 3: Oldies but Goodies

Market Value:
These players will be looking to sign a one or two year deal (likely with a contender) for around 5-8 million per year 

14. Eric Weddl

15. Matt Forte
22. Alex Mack
23. Derrick Johnson
24. Jerrell Freeman 
25. Donald Penn 
27. Mario Williams
31. Charles Johnson 


Tier 4:  Impact starters

Market Value:
These players will be looking at 3-5 year deals for 5-8 million per season, some may get more by non-contenders with a lot of cap space that are willing to over spend for young talent. These teams include Jacksonville, Oakland, New York Giants, Cleveland, Tennessee, San Francisco and Tampa Bay. 

19. Damon Harrison

20. Danny Trevathan
21. Doug Martin 
26. Bruce Irvin 
28. Sean Smith 
29. George Iloka 
30. Mitchell Schwartz
32. Lamar Miller
33. Casey Hayward 
34. Prince Amukamara 
35. Jaye Howard 
36. Alex Boone 
37. Ian Williams 
38. Tashaun Gipson 
39. Marvin Jones 
40. Rodney McLeod 


Tier 5: Solid veteran starters/guys with injuries or character concerns 
Market Value:
Will vary, but it would be very surprising if any of these guys got more than 10 million in guaranteed money 

41. Greg Hardy 
42. Robert Ayers  
43. Nick Fairley 
44. Arian Foster 
45. Ryan Ritzpatrick 
46. Tamba Hali 
47. Adam Jones 
48. Walter Thurmond 
49. Reggie Nelson  
50. Chris Long 
51. Haloti Ngata 


Tier 6: Starting Veteran Offensive Lineman  
Market Value:
Between Ben Grubbs' 4 years 24 million and Marcus Gilbert's 5 years 30 million

53. Kelvin Beachum 
54. Jeff Allen 
55. Evan Mathis 
56. Richie Incognito
57. Ramon Foster 
58. Brandon Brooks

Tier 7:   #3 WR's
Market Value:
Eddie Royal's 3 years 15 million 

52. Anquan Boldin
59. Rishard Matthews  

60. Travis Benjamin