Tuesday, June 23, 2015


I do my team needs based on the type of team they are.  In my opinion we have five different types of teams out there.

(5) THE CONTENDERS (pretty self explanatory): GS, CLV, HOU, LAC, SA 

(7) GOOD PERENNIAL PLAYOFF TEAMS (good teams with veteran stars/core, however they lack either a superstar or depth to be considered a true contender):  ATL, MEM, POR, DAL, TOR, WAS, BRK

(4) CONTENDERS WITH INJURED STARS LAST YEAR (injured star with games played last year in parenthesis)CHI (Derrick Rose-51 games), OKC (Kevin Durant-27 games), IND (Paul George- 6 games) MIA (Chris Bosh-44 games)

(5) EMERGING TEAMS (These are young teams with young cores that either made or battled for a playoff spot last year,. They should become contenders or perennial playoff teams soon): 


(9) REBUILDING (self explanatory, all these teams have top 9 picks and won less than 34 games last year): CHR, DET, DEN, SAC, ORL, LAL, PHL, NY, MIN 

Notes: Projected 2013 Salary cap is 67.1 million.  

The number next to position is the range the player ranks in the NBA in regards to other starters at their position. 

In parenthesis next to the players name on the left is their true value score the average of games played the past three season and the players age 

My true value score is calculated based on 4 metrics 
True scoring: I take points per game multiplied by True Shooting Percentage 
Ball Control: Assists minus turnovers multiplied by 2 or assists to turnover ratio, which ever is higher
Hustle: The sum of rebounds, steals and blocks per game 
Plus/Minus and VORP: The average of a players plus/minus with a player value over replacement player. The plus minus gives a good indication of the players value to the team while value over replacement player is an individual advanced metric that measures  player based on the average player at his position 

The true value score is done based on a two year sample size for most players, for rookies and players that had larger roles than last year, I do the true value score based on just this season. 

Pick: 15, 50. 59
2014-2015 Record: 60-22
Head Coach/GM: Mike Budenholzer/former GM Danny Ferry just left the team 
All Star C (3-7): Al Horford (26.356/59.6/29) 
All-Star PF (5-12): Paul Millsap (26.136/75.0/30)
All Star PG (6-13): Jeff Teague (25.829/77.3/27)
Good SG (8-12): Kyle Korver (20.073/73.3/34)
Good SF (11-17): DeMarre Carroll (18.583/69.6/29)
Young CG (6th man): 2013 #17 pick Dennis Schroder (13.35/77.0/21)
SG:Thabo Sefolosha 
PF: Mike Scott 
C: Pero Antic 
SG: Kent Bazemore 
CG: Shelvin Mack  
C/F: 2013 #44 pick Mike Muscala 
Over Priced: No One, will have to over spend to keep both Millsap and Carroll this off season 
Great Value: Teague (8.0), insane value when you consider he makes less than half of what Derrick Rose, Kyrie Irving and Deron Williams make 
2015 Cap $$$: 40.224 (9 players) 
Key Free Agents: Millsap, Carroll, Antic (restricted) 

Team Stats:

Offensive Points Per Game: 10
Offensive Rating: 6 
Points Allowed: 5
Defensive Rating: 6
Assists Per Game: 2
Rebounds Per Game: 28
3-Point Percentage: 2
Field Goal Percentage: 4

PF or SF in case Millsap and/or Carroll leave

Bobby Portis, Myles Turner, Kevon Looney, Frank Kaminsky, Sam Dekker, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Montrezl Harrell 

The Hawks had a great season in 2015. They finished with the best record in the East and had a league best 19 game win streak. Horford, Teague, Millsap and Korver all made the All-Star team. Things went great until the Eastern Conference finals when they couldn't stop LeBron and ended up getting swept. Atlanta must do everything in its power to retain Millsap and Carroll. If they don't, they will go from 1 seed to a likely 5-8 seed. They should prepare for life after Millsap by drafting a power forward at #15. 

Pick: 19. 49 
2014-2015 Record: 46-36 
Head Coach/GM: Randy Wittman/Ernie Grunfeld (President)
Star PG (4/5): John Wall (32.225/80.5/24) 
Good Emerging Star SG (8-12): Bradley Beal (18.691/64.0/22)
Good C (8-13): Marcin Gortat (21.551/74.3/31)  
Former Superstar SF (11-17) Paul Pierce (17.908/75.0/37)
Below Average PF (21-26): Nene Hilario (14.834/64.3/33) 
Young SF: 2013 #3 pick Otto Porter 
PF: Kris Humphries
C: Kelvin Seraphin 
SF: Rasual Butler 
CG: Ramon Sessions
F/C: Drew Gooden
SG: Garrett Temple
Over Priced: Nene (13.0), too much money for their worst starter
Great Value: Beal (5.6 rookie contract, has improved every year since being drafted in 2012
2015 Cap $$$: 66.752 (10 players)
Key Free Agents: Pierce, Seraphin, Butler, Gooden

Team Stats:

Offensive Points Per Game: 17
Offensive Rating: 22 
Points Allowed: 10
Defensive Rating: 5
Assists Per Game: 6
Rebounds Per Game: 8
3-Point Percentage: 9
Field Goal Percentage: 6

PF upgrade, backup PG

Kevon Looney, Frank Kaminsky, Montrezl Harrell, Jerian Grant, Tyus Jones, Terry Rozier, Delon Wright 

The Wizards continue to ascend in the Eastern conference. In Wall and Beal, they have the second best guard duo in the NBA. Gortat is a great role playing big man and Porter improved in his second year after a terrible rookie campaign. Now all they need is an upgrade at the four. Nene is going into his final year under contract and it's time to find a replacement. 

Pick: 20
2014-2015 Record: 43-33 
Head Coach/GM: Dwane Casey/Masai Ujari
All Star PG (6-10): Kyle Lowry (27.685/73.0/29)
All Star SG (4-7) DeMar DeRozan (22.109/73.6/26)
CG (6th Man of the Year): Lou Williams (18.592/70.0/28)
Average C (14-23): Jonas Valinciunas (16.092/74.3/23) 
Below Average PF (21-25): Amir Johnson (15.998/77.6/28)
PF (7th man): Patrick Patterson (15.115/73.3/26)
Below Average, but still Young SG: 2012 #8 pick Terrence Ross (10.411/81.3/24) 
CG: Greivis Vasquez
CF: James Johnson
PF: Tyler Hansborough
SF: 2014 #20 pick Bruno Caboclo
Over Priced: None 
Great Value: DeRozan (10.1), will opt out after next season and will command big money 
2015 Cap $$$: 49.049 (9 players)
Key Free Agents: Williams, Johnson, Hansborough

Team Stats:

Offensive Points Per Game: 4
Offensive Rating: 4 
Points Allowed: 19
Defensive Rating: 25
Assists Per Game: 22
Rebounds Per Game: 26
3-Point Percentage: 11
Field Goal Percentage: 12

PF or SF

Sam Dekker, Kelly Oubre, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, RJ Hunter, Kevon Looney, Frank Kaminsky, Montrezl Harrell

The Raptors are a good team led by a good guard duo with Lowry and DeRozan. Lou Williams had the best season of his career and was rewarded by winning the NBA 6th Man of the Year Award. They need Valinciunas to take his game to another level and live up to being a top five pick. At #20 they need to draft an instant impact player that can come in and compete for a starting job. 

Pick: 21, 52
2014-2015 Record: 50-32
Head Coach/GM: Rick Carlisle/Donnie Nelson 
Former Superstar, still good PF(6-12): Dirk Nowitzki (23.439/70.0/37)
Very Good/almost Elite SG (4-7): Monta Ellis (22.004/81.3/29)
Good SF (6-10): Chandler Parsons (19.902/73.0/26)  
Good Defensive C (8-13) Tyson Chandler (22.006/65.3/32) 
Average PG (17-22): Rajon Rondo (20.637/45.3/29)
CG: Devin Harris
C/F: Amar'e Stoudemire 
PG: JJ Berea 
CF: Al-Farouq Aminu
SF: Richard Jefferson 
PG: Ray Felton 
Over Priced: Parsons (15.3), injuries hurt him last year, will have another chance to play up to his salary next year
Great Value: Nowitzki (8.3), greatest player in franchise history took less money to finish his career in Dallas
2015 Cap $$$: 32.859 (5 players)  
Key Free Agents: Ellis (8.7 player option), Chandler, Rondo, Stoudemire, Aminu, Berea, Jefferson 

Team Stats:

Offensive Points Per Game: 3
Offensive Rating: 5 
Points Allowed: 25
Defensive Rating: 20
Assists Per Game: 8
Rebounds Per Game: 23
3-Point Percentage: 11
Field Goal Percentage: 5

PG, C, wing depth

Jerian Grant, Tyus Jones, Terry Rozier, Delon Wright 

The Rajon Rondo experiment was a disaster, Now the Mavs will look to add a starting point guard in the draft. Jones and Grant have the skill set and maturity to come in and lead the team right away. Owner Mark Cuban and GM Donnie Nelson will be very busy this summer as most of the core players are free agents this summer. 

Pick: 23
2014-2015 Record: 51-31
Head Coach/GM: Terry Stotts/Neil Olshey
Star PF (1-5): LaMarcus Aldridge (31.811/71.3/30)
Star PG (4/5): Damien Lillard (29.25/82.0/25)
Good SF (6-10) Nic Batum (24.066/75.5/26)
Good SG (8-12) Wes Matthews (19.721/70.3/28) 
Average C (14-23): Robin Lopez (16.75/74.3/27)
C: Chris Kaman
SG: Aaron Afflalo 
CG: 2013 #10 pick CJ McCollum  
PG: Steve Blake 
C: Meyers Leonard

Over Priced: Afflalo (7.75 player option) 
Great Value: Lillard (4.2 rookie contract),
2015 Cap $$$: 30.259 (6 players) includes Kaman (5.02 team option) 
Key Free Agents: Aldridge. Matthews, Lopez,  AfflaloKaman (5.02 team option)

Team Stats:

Offensive Points Per Game: 9
Offensive Rating: 9 
Points Allowed: 12
Defensive Rating: 10
Assists Per Game: 12
Rebounds Per Game: 2
3-Point Percentage: 3
Field Goal Percentage: 17

PF, SG and C as all three starters are free agents

Montrezl Harrell, Justin Anderson, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Rashad Vaugn, RJ Hunter, Christan Wood, Michael Frazier 

Portland may be going from playoff team to rebuilding if they lose Aldridge, Matthews and Lopez this summer. The mid season trade for Afflalo was unsuccessful as he didn't fit well in Portland. They will likely go with the best player available at #23. This is sure to be a very interesting summer in Portland. 

Pick: 25
2014-2015 Record: 55-27 
Head Coach/GM: Dave Joerger/Chris Wallace
All Star C (1/2): Marc Gasol (30.665/73.3/30)
Good PG (6-13): Mike Conley (23.83/74.3/28)
Good PF (6-12): Zach Randolph (24.174/75.3/34
Average SF/SG (18-23): Tony Allen (16.721/65.6/33)
Average SF (18-23): Jeff Green (14.986/80.3/29)
Average SF (17-21): Courtney Lee (12.586/78.0/30)
C: Kosta Koufos 
CG: Beno Udrih
F/G: Vince Carter
PG: Nick Calathes
F/C: Jon Leuer
Over Priced: Green (9.4), opted back in because he knew he wouldn't get that on the open market
Great Value: Conley (9.4), see Jeff Teague 
2015 Cap $$$: 47.332 (8 players) 
Key Free Agents: Gasol, Koufos, Udrih (2.17 team option), Calathes (restricted), Leuer (1.03 team option)

Team Stats:

Offensive Points Per Game: 20
Offensive Rating: 13 
Points Allowed: 2
Defensive Rating: 3
Assists Per Game: 15
Rebounds Per Game: 21
3-Point Percentage: 22
Field Goal Percentage: 9

F/C and wing depth, 3-point shooting, rebounding

Justin Anderson, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Rashad Vaugn, RJ Hunter, Christan Wood, Michael Frazier 

The Grizzlies will take the best player available in the draft. Resigning Gasol is priority number one this summer. If they can keep him, then they will continue to be a playoff team in the West. Conley and Randolph are great players too, however Gasol has taken over as the leader of this team and face of the franchise. They have a lot of solid wings, but they need some young depth there as well. 

Picks: 29, 41
2014-2015 Record: 38-44 
Head Coach/GM: Lionel Hollins/Billy King
Very Good/almost Elite C (8-10): Brook Lopez (22.229/54.3/27)
Former Star now Average PG (17-22): Deron Williams (20.442/70.0/31
All Star SF (7-10): Joe Johnson (18.018/77.0/33)
Average CF/PF (15-20): Thaddeus Young (19.102/77.0/27)
Young C/F: 2013 #22 pick Mason Plumlee (14.932/76.0/25)
CG (6th man): Jarrett Jack (14.464/79.6/31) 
Young SG: Bojan Bogdanovic (drafted in 2011, came over from Europe last season) 
SG: Alan Anderson
CF: Earl Clark
SG: 2014 #44 pick Markel Brown 
CF: Mirza Teletovic 
Over Priced: Johnson (24.9) and Williams (20.1), two of the ten highest players in the league and both are past their prime
Great Value: Jack (6.3), very good role player at a nice mid-level price
2015 Cap $$$: 60.716 (8 players), doesn't include Lopez or Anderson's options 
Key Free Agents: Lopez (16.4 player option), Young, Anderson (1.3 player option), Teletovic (restricted) 

Team Stats:

Offensive Points Per Game: 21
Offensive Rating: 20 
Points Allowed: 18
Defensive Rating: 23
Assists Per Game: 20
Rebounds Per Game: 22
3-Point Percentage: 26
Field Goal Percentage: 16

F/C, young PG, rebounding and 3-point shooting

Jerian Grant, Tyus Jones, Terry Rozier, Delon Wright, Justin Anderson, Rashad Vaugn, RJ Hunter, Christan Wood, Michael Frazier 

It appears that Lopez may opt out of 16.4 million and test the free agent market. While he won't get a max deal, he should be able to command a contract around 4 years 56 million. The Nets are a team in transition. They are lead by aging veterans in Williams and Johnson. The only young asset on the team is Plumlee, but he isn't someone to build a team around. They should be able to find two good players that can come in a get solid minutes right away. 

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