Tuesday, June 23, 2015

2015 NBA DRAFT: TEAM NEEDS: THE CONTENDERS

I do my team needs based on the type of team they are.  In my opinion we have five different types of teams out there.

(5) THE CONTENDERS (pretty self explanatory): GS, CLV, HOU, LAC, SA 


(7) GOOD PERENNIAL PLAYOFF TEAMS (good teams with veteran stars/core, however they lack either a superstar or depth to be considered a true contender):  ATL, MEM, POR, DAL, TOR, WAS, BRK


(4) CONTENDERS WITH INJURED STARS LAST YEAR (injured star with games played last year in parenthesis)CHI (Derrick Rose-51 games), OKC (Kevin Durant-27 games), IND (Paul George- 6 games) MIA (Chris Bosh-44 games)

(5) EMERGING TEAMS (These are young teams with young cores that either made or battled for a playoff spot last year,. They should become contenders or perennial playoff teams soon): 

NO, MIL, BOS, UTAH, PHO

(9) REBUILDING (self explanatory, all these teams have top 9 picks and won less than 34 games last year): CHR, DET, DEN, SAC, ORL, LAL, PHL, NY, MIN 



Notes: Projected 2013 Salary cap is 67.1 million.  


The number next to position is the range the player ranks in the NBA in regards to other starters at their position. 

In parenthesis next to the players name on the left is their true value score the average of games played the past three season and the players age 

My true value score is calculated based on 4 metrics 
True scoring: I take points per game multiplied by True Shooting Percentage 
Ball Control: Assists minus turnovers multiplied by 2 or assists to turnover ratio, which ever is higher
Hustle: The sum of rebounds, steals and blocks per game 
Plus/Minus and VORP: The average of a players plus/minus with a player value over replacement player. The plus minus gives a good indication of the players value to the team while value over replacement player is an individual advanced metric that measures  player based on the average player at his position 

The true value score is done based on a two year sample size for most players, for rookies and players that had larger roles than last year, I do the true value score based on just this season. 


HOUSTON ROCKETS 
Picks: 18, 32
2014-2015 Record: 56-26
Head Coach/GM: Kevin McHale/Daryl Morey 
Starters/Core  
Superstar SG (#1): James Harden (37.32/77.3/26)
Former Superstar, still Good C (3-7): Dwight Howard (28.397/62.6/29) 
Good SF (6-10): Trevor Ariza (19.423/71.6/30) 
Average PF (13-20): Josh Smith (18.156/78.6/29) 
CF (6th man): Terrence Jones (16.859/54.5/23) 
Below Average PG (26-30) Patrick Beverly (15.831/56.0/27) 
Below Average PF (27-30): Donatas Motiejunas (12.503/66.3/25)  
Bench/Depth:
SF: Corey Brewer
SG: Jason Terry 
PG: Pablo Prigioni 
PF: 2104 #25 pick Clint Capela
C: Joey Dorsey  
CG: 2014 #42 pick Nick Johnson  
Over Priced: Howard (22.4), no longer the best center in the league but is still being paid as such 
Great Value: Harden (15.7), top 5 player in the NBA will be only the 18th highest paid player next year 
2015 Cap $$$: 54.629 (8 players) 
Key Free Agents: Smith, Brewer, Terry, Prigioni 

Team Stats:

Offensive Points Per Game: 6
Offensive Rating: 12 
Points Allowed: 17
Defensive Rating: 8
Assists Per Game: 9
Rebounds Per Game: 14
3-Point Percentage: 14
Field Goal Percentage: 20

Needs: 
PG
Options: 

Jerian Grant, Tyus Jones, Terry Rozier, Delon Wright 
Trade up for Cameron Payne
Synopsis:  

The Rockets need to do everything in their power to draft a point guard that can come in and start from day one. Beverly is always hurt and is an offensive liability. Prigioni and Terry are both pushing 40. They have a great opportunity in the draft to find their man. The Rockets trio of Harden, Howard and Ariza is very good but they need more a few more offensive play makers to take this team to the next level. 


CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Picks: 24, 53
2014-2015 Record: 53-29
Head Coach/GM: David Blatt/David Griffin 
Starters/Core  
Superstar SF (#1): LeBron James (41.848/74.0/30)
All Star PF (4-8) Kevin Love (30.043/56.6/27)
All Star PG (6-10) Kyrie Irving (27.327/68.3/23)
F/C (6th man): Tristan Thompson (17.869/82.0/24)
Average C (14-23): Timofey Mozgov (16.259/68.0/29)
Average SG (14/18) JR Smith (14.658/74.6/29)
Bench/Depth:
G/F: Iman Shumpert
PG: Matthew Dellavedova
SF: Mike Miller
C: Anderson Varejao
SF: James Jones 
Over Priced: Varejao (9.6), the worst contract in the NBA! He is always hurt, he can't shoot, he can't pass and he can't create, yeah he can hustle, but you don't give a hustle player 9 million per year
Great Value: James (20.1), any price is great value for the best player on the planet  
2015 Cap $$$: 55.668 
Key Free Agents: Love (16.7 player option), Thompson (restricted), Smith (6.0 player option), Shumpert (restricted) Dellavedova (restricted), Miller (2.8 player option), Jones

Team Stats:

Offensive Points Per Game: 8
Offensive Rating: 3
Points Allowed: 13
Defensive Rating: 18
Assists Per Game: 10
Rebounds Per Game: 18
3-Point Percentage: 3
Field Goal Percentage: 8

Needs: 
Wing depth, backup PG, backup C
Options: 

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Justin Anderson, RJ Hunter, Rashad Vaughn 
Synopsis: 
 

As long as King James has a pulse, the Cavs will be a title contender. They were stuck hard by injuries in the playoffs yet still managed to make it to the finals and took the Warriors to six games. Free agency will be key as they may lose Love or Thompson. They will likely match any reasonable offer made to Shumpert or Dellavadova. They need to use their pick on a wing that can defend as LeBron James is spending too much energy on defense guarding the other teams best player. Hollis-Jefferson or Anderson would be perfect fits at #24. If both are gone, they should grab a shooter like Hunter or Vaughn 


SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Picks: 26, 55 
2014-2015 Record: 55-27
Head Coach/GM: Gregg Popovich/RC Buford 
Starters/Core  
Emerging star SF (3-5): Kawhi Leonard (28.776/62.6/24)
Former Superstar, still Elite PF (6-10) Tim Duncan (25.524/73.3/39)
Former Star, still Very Good PG (6-13) Tony Parker (24.279/67.3/33)
Good SG (8-12): Danny Green (18.061/76.3/28)
G/F (6th man): Manu Ginobili (16.962/69.0/38)
Below Average C (25-30): Tiago Splitter (15.689/64.0/30) 
F/C (7th man): Boris Diaw (13.746/78.3/33)
Bench/Depth:
PG: Patty Mills 
G/F: Marco Belinelli 
CG: Cory Joseph 
C: Aron Baynes 
F/C: Matt Bonner 
Over Priced: Splitter (8.5)
Great Value: No one yet 
2015 Cap $$$: 34.159 (5 players 
Key Free Agents: Leonard (restricted), Duncan, Green, Ginobili, Belinelli, Joseph (restricted), Baynes (restricted), Bonner 

Team Stats:

Offensive Points Per Game: 7
Offensive Rating: 7
Points Allowed: 3
Defensive Rating: 2
Assists Per Game: 5
Rebounds Per Game: 15
3-Point Percentage: 5
Field Goal Percentage: 3

Needs: 
SG as insurance for Green leaving
Options: 

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Justin Anderson, RJ Hunter, Rashad Vaughn, Michael Frazier, Rakeem Christmas, Christian Wood, Jarell Martin, Norman Powell, Cedi Osman
Synopsis: 
 

The Spurs are the standard to which most teams strive to be. Once again they won 50 plus games and were title contenders. However, they were bounced out of the first round after an incredible seven game series with the Clippers. Now it's time for this franchise to reload and it starts with the draft. Popovich and Buford will draft a hard working player that fits the Spurs culture. 

The key for another deep run will be retaining the talent they currently have. It won't be easy as eight player in their twelve man rotation are free agents. We know vets like Duncan and Manu will take less to stay with the club, but they will likely to lose both Green and Belinelli this summer. Don't be surprised if they take a shooting guard at #26 to fill the void. 


GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Pick: 30
2014-2015 Record: 67-15
Head Coach/GM: Steve Kerr/Bob Myers
Starters/Core  
Superstar PG (1-3) and 2015 league MVP: Stephen Curry (41.604/78.6/27)
Emerging Star PF (4-8): Draymond Green (30.154/80.0/25) 
All Star SG (2-7) Klay Thompson (26.425/80.0/25)
G/F (6th man): Andre Igoudala (18.699/73.3/31)
Above Average SF (11-17): Harrison Barnes (18.127/80.3/23)  
Average C (14-23): Andrew Bogut (18.673/55.3/30)
Bench/Depth:
F/C: David Lee
F/C: Marreese Speights 
PG: Shaun Livingston
CG: Leandro Barbosa
C: Festus Ezeli 

Over Priced: Lee (15.5), are doing everything they can to unload this contract 
Great Value: Curry (11.3), BIGGEST VALUE IN THE NBA!!!!
The league MVP was the fourth highest paid player on the team and the 12th highest paid point guard in the league 
2015 Cap $$$: 77.501 (9 players), does not include Speights' team option 
Key Free Agents: Green (restricted), Speights (3.8 team option), Barbosa

Team Stats:

Offensive Points Per Game: 1
Offensive Rating: 2 
Points Allowed: 15
Defensive Rating: 1
Assists Per Game: 1
Rebounds Per Game: 6
3-Point Percentage: 1
Field Goal Percentage: 1

Needs: 
Depth at F/C
Options: 

RJ Hunter, Rashad Vaughn, Michael Frazier, Norman Powell, Rakeem Christmas, Cedi Osman, Jarell Martin, Christian Wood, Jordan Mickey, Jonathan Holmes
Synopsis: 
 

The Warriors won the NBA title by playing at an incredibly efficient level all season. As you can see above, they finished first in five of the eight key statistical categories. In Curry, Thompson and Green, they have one of the best young trios in the league. Add in veteran role players like Iguodala, Bogut and Livingston, and you have a team built to defend their title. 

The only concern this off season is retaining Green. They will need to offer him a near max extension to keep him and will need to unload Lee's contract to avoid a very high luxury tax penalty. It won't be easy to repeat, but the Warriors have all the tools (shooting, passing, defense, chemistry, coaching and depth) to be back in the finals next year. 



LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS 
NO PICKS 
2014-2015 Record: 56-26
Head Coach/GM: Doc Rivers is both coach and GM 
Starters/Core  
Superstar PG (1-3): Chris Paul (41.401/71.3/30) 
Star PF (1-4): Blake Griffin (34.559/75.6/26) 
C (3-7) best defensive Center in the league: DeAndre Jordan (29.914/82.0/27) 
Above Average SG (13-16) JJ Redick (18.227/63.6/31)
CG (6th man): Jamal Crawford (15.852/69.6/35)
SG: Lance Stephenson (16.361/72.3/24)
Bench/Depth:
CG: Austin Rivers
CF: Hedo Turkoglu
PF: Glen Davis  
PF: Ekpe Udoh 
Over Priced: Stephenson (9.0), got a huge contract from Charlotte last summer and his season was a disaster, Doc Rivers is willing to take a chance on him 
Great Value: None, both Paul and Griffin deserve their max deals but I wouldn't call either a value 
2015 Cap $$$: 64.709 (5 players) 
Key Free Agents: Jordan, Crawford (6.75 team option), Rivers, Turkoglu, Davis  

Team Stats:

Offensive Points Per Game: 2
Offensive Rating: 1 
Points Allowed: 16
Defensive Rating: 15
Assists Per Game: 3
Rebounds Per Game: 20
3-Point Percentage: 3
Field Goal Percentage: 2

Needs: 
SF, F/C depth
Options: 

Trade back into the draft
Synopsis:  

The Clippers traded away small forward Matt Barnes to get Stephenson. This leaves a huge void at the three. This team has no depth and it showed in the playoffs. They need to make a decision on if Jordan is worth the max contract he desires. They can save close to 5 million be waiving Crawford but they will try to trade him for a starter first. Paul and Griffin are arguably the best duo in the NBA. However it appears that their championship window seems to be closing right before their eyes. 

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