Saturday, June 20, 2015

2015 NBA DRAFT: TEAM NEEDS: CONTENDERS WITH INJURED STARS LAST YEAR





I do my team needs based on the type of team they are.  In my opinion we have five different types of teams out there.

(5) THE CONTENDERS (pretty self explanatory): GS, CLV, HOU, LAC, SA 


(7) GOOD PERENNIAL PLAYOFF TEAMS (good teams with veteran stars/core, however they lack either a superstar or depth to be considered a true contender):  ATL, MEM, POR, DAL, TOR, WAS, BRK




(4) CONTENDERS WITH INJURED STARS LAST YEAR (
injured star with games played last year in parenthesis)CHI (Derrick Rose-51 games), OKC (Kevin Durant-27 games), IND (Paul George- 6 games) MIA (Chris Bosh-44 games)

(5) EMERGING TEAMS (These are young teams with young cores that either made or battled for a playoff spot last year,. They should become contenders or perennial playoff teams soon): 

NO, MIL, BOS, UTAH, PHO

(9) REBUILDING (self explanatory, all these teams have top 9 picks and won less than 34 games last year): CHR, DET, DEN, SAC, ORL, LAL, PHL, NY, MIN 



Notes: Projected 2013 Salary cap is 67.1 million.  


The number next to position is the range the player ranks in the NBA in regards to other starters at their position. 

In parenthesis next to the players name on the left is their true value score the average of games played the past three season and the players age 

My true value score is calculated based on 4 metrics 
True scoring: I take points per game multiplied by True Shooting Percentage 
Ball Control: Assists minus turnovers multiplied by 2 or assists to turnover ratio, which ever is higher
Hustle: The sum of rebounds, steals and blocks per game 
Plus/Minus and VORP: The average of a players plus/minus with a player value over replacement player. The plus minus gives a good indication of the players value to the team while value over replacement player is an individual advanced metric that measures  player based on the average player at his position 

The true value score is done based on a two year sample size for most players, for rookies and players that had larger roles than last year, I do the true value score based on just this season. 


MIAMI HEAT
Picks: 10, 40
2014-2015 Record: 37-45
Head Coach/GM: Erik Spoelstra/Pat Riley (President)/Andy Elisburg (GM)
Starters/Core  
All Star PF (4-10) Chris Bosh (26.016/65.6/31) 
Good PG (6-13) Goran Dragic (25.319/77.0/29)
Former Superstar SG (3-7) Dwyane Wade (23.189/61.6/33)
Young Center (13-20) Hassan Whiteside (20.207/48.0/26)
Average SF (11-17) Luol Deng (17.145/70.0/30)
Bench/Depth:
CG: Mario Chalmers 
PF: Josh McRoberts
 C: Chris Anderson 
PF: Udonis Haslem 
PG: 2014 #24 pick Shabazz Napier 
SF: 2013 #50 pick James Ennis 
Over Priced: Deng (10.1), a lot was expected from Deng after signing a two year 20 million dollar deal, but he had a very underwhelming season in Miami 
Great Value: Whiteside (981,348), he was the lone bright spot last year, he will get a HUGE pay raise after next year if he can stay healthy
2015 Cap $$$: 54.87 without Wade and Dragic 78.495 with Wade and Dragic (13 or 11 players) 
Key Free Agents: Dragic (7.5 player option), Wade (16.1 player option), Deng (10.1 player option), 

Team Stats:

Offensive Points Per Game: 27
Offensive Rating: 21
Points Allowed: 6
Defensive Rating: 21
Assists Per Game: 30
Rebounds Per Game: 30
3-Point Percentage: 24
Field Goal Percentage: 11

Needs: 
SF upgrade, 3 point shooting, rebounding
Options: 

Stanley Johnson, Devin Booker, Mario Hezonja  
Synopsis: 
 

The Heat went from title contender to the draft lottery in one year. It started with LeBron James leaving to go back home to Cleveland. The Heat signed Deng to replace LeBron and gave Bosh a max extension. On paper, the Heat looked like a top 3 seed in the East. Then injuries started to pile. The expected starting five of Bosh, Wade, Deng, McRoberts and Chalmers never started a game together.

Things were looking up at mid season as Whiteside came out of no where to become a legit starting center. They then traded for Dragic in order to make a playoff run. Then Bosh had his season end due to blood clots in his lungs. The Heat fought hard but they just didn't have enough left to make the playoffs. 

Now the key is to find an instant impact wing player at #10. Johnson is seems like the best fit with his ability to defend multiple positions, plus he can hit an open jump shot. Booker and Hezonja are great shooters but will need to work on their defense. Pat Riley is one of the best minds in the game, if he drafts the right player at #10, Miami should have no problem getting back to the top of the East if they can stay healthy. 


INDIANA PACERS
Picks: 11, 43
2014-2015 Record: 38-44
Head Coach/GM: Frank Vogel/Larry Bird (President)/ Kevin Pritchard (GM) 
Starters/Core  
Star SF (3-5) Paul George (27.164/55.6/25)
Good/average PF (13-20) David West (19.369/73.0/35)
Average PG (15-24) George Hill (19.962/65.0/29)
Average C (14-18) Roy Hibbert (18.223/78.6/28)
CG (6th man) Rodney Stuckey (14.239/73.3/29) 
Below Average SG (21-25) CJ Miles (12.698/62.0/28) 
SF (started 78 games due to Paul George's injury, will come off the bench next year) Soloman Hill (11.482/82.0/24) 
Bench/Depth:
F/C: Luis Scola
PG: CJ Watson
PG: Donald Sloan 
C: Ian Mahinmi 
PF: Lavoy Allen 
Over Priced: Hibbert (15.5), solid center but is being paid like a top 5 big man, he;s made the most of his talent he will never be elite 
Great Value: Stuckey (vet minimum last season), some team with give him their full bi-annual exception after a good season last year  
2015 Cap $$$: 64.137 (8 players) 
Key Free Agents: Stuckey, Scola, Watson, Sloan, Allen 

Team Stats:

Offensive Points Per Game: 24
Offensive Rating: 23
Points Allowed: 4
Defensive Rating: 7
Assists Per Game: 18
Rebounds Per Game: 5
3-Point Percentage: 11
Field Goal Percentage: 23

Needs: 
Scoring, SG upgrade, young PF
Options: 

Trade up for Willie Cauley Stein, Trey Lyles, Devin Booker, Cameron Payne, Myles Turner, Bobby Portis, Frank Kaminsky, Sam Dekker, Kelly Oubre
Trade down for Delon Wright, Norman Powell or RJ Hunter
Synopsis:  

Pacers star Paul George suffered a gruesome injury last summer with the US National Team. He was expected to miss the entire season. With hard work and great rehab he was able to play the final six games of the season in very limited minutes. The team did well in his absence as guys like Stuckey and Miles stepped up to fill the scoring void. George Hill had a career year after missing the first two months with his own injury. 

Like the Heat, the Pacers expect to be contending in the Eastern conference next year. They are in the market for a starting shooting guard. If Booker somehow slips past Charlotte and Miami, expect Indy to jump at the opportunity to get the best shooter in the draft. They could also use a PF to become the eventual successor for David West. Lyles, Tuner and Portis would all be good options there. The other rumor is that they are enamored with Cauley-Stein's athletic ability and may want to trade up for him. If they do that, expect them to trade Hibbert as well.   


OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Picks: 14, 48
2014-2015 Record: 45-37
Head Coach/GM: Billy Donovan/Sam Presti 
Starters/Core  
Superstar SF (#2): Kevin Durant (37.488/63.0/26)
Superstar PG (top 4): Russell Westbrook (36.487/65.0/27) 
Above Average PF (13-15): Serge Ibaka (22.732/75.0/26) 
Breakout Stud C (11-15): Enes Kanter (17.81/75.0/23) 
Young SG:  2013 #26 pick Andre Roberson 
Young C: 2013 #12 pick Steven Adams 
G/F (6th man): Anthony Morrow 
Bench/Depth:
SG: Dion Waiters
C/F: Nick Collison
PG: DJ Augustin 
SF: Kyle Singler 
C: 2014 #21 pick Mitch McGary 
Over Priced: Ibaka (12.3) GREAT shot blocker and solid on the boards, but gives you little offensively, I wonder if they will look to trade him in order to keep Kanter
Great Value: Westbrook (16.7), that is a a value for one of the top 8 players in the league, Westbrook will likely get over 25 million on the open market in 2017 when he is a free agent
2015 Cap $$$: 78.26 (13 players) 
Key Free Agents:  Kanter (restricted), Singler (restricted)

Team Stats:

Offensive Points Per Game: 5
Offensive Rating: 10 
Points Allowed: 24
Defensive Rating: 16
Assists Per Game: 25
Rebounds Per Game: 1
3-Point Percentage: 22
Field Goal Percentage: 18

Needs: 
Offensive SG, backup PG, C/F depth
Options: 

Cameron Payne, Sam Dekker, Myles Turner, Bobby Portis, Frank Kaminsky
Trade down for Jerian Grant, Tyus Jones, Delon Wright, RJ Hunter
Synopsis:  
The Billy Donovan era has officially begun in OKC. Expectations are very high for Coach Donovan in his first year. If Durant comes back as the Durant of old, the Thunder are expected to compete for the NBA title. Durant's injury last year allowed Westbrook to take his game to another level. They also made a great deal at the trade deadline by getting Kanter. He was a stud down the stretch averaging nearly 20 and 10. 

Now the questions shift to if they will resign Kanter and if there's enough shots/minutes to go around. Donovan will have to balance getting two superstars enough shots and may also need to figure out how to incorporate Kanter and Ibaka into the mix. 

As for the draft, the Thunder will likely take the best player available. If the right trade came along, GM Sam Presti would certainly pull the trigger to add a veteran that can make this team the best in the NBA. 


CHICAGO BULLS
Pick: 22 
2014-2015 Record: 50-32
Head Coach/GM: Fred Hoiberg/Gar Forman 
Starters/Core  
All Star SG (2/3): Jimmy Butler (27.66/71.3/26)
Aging yet still Star PF (4-8) Pau Gasol (28.305/62.3/35)
Star when healthy PG (6-13) Derrick Rose (26.195/58.2 career games per year average/27)
Great Defensive C (top 7) Joakim Noah (26.711/71.0/30)
PF (6th man) Taj Gibson (15.574/69.6/30)
CF (7th man) NIkola Mirotic (14.681/82.0/24)
Average SF: Mike Dunleavy (14.828/73.3/35)
Bench/Depth:
PG: Aaron Brooks
CG: Kirk Hinrich 
SF: 2013 #20 pick Tony Snell
CF: 2014 #11 pick Doug McDermott
Over Priced: Rose (20.1), great talent but is always battling injury after injury
Great Value: Gasol (7.4) top 5 PF was the 14th highest paid PF last year 
2015 Cap $$$: 63.014 (8 players)
Key Free Agents:  Butler (restricted), Dunleavy, Brooks

Team Stats:

Offensive Points Per Game: 15
Offensive Rating: 11 
Points Allowed: 9
Defensive Rating: 11
Assists Per Game: 14
Rebounds Per Game: 3
3-Point Percentage: 10
Field Goal Percentage: 22

Needs: 
SF, backup PG, backup C .
Options: 

Jerian Grant, Tyus Jones, Delon Wright, Terry Rozier, Justin Anderson, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Kelly Oubre, Rashad Vaughn, RJ Hunter 
Synopsis: 
 

The Bulls had a nice season despite Rose and Noah missing significant time due to injuries. Butler stepped up last year and became an all star. He is now set to get a max extension this summer. Pau had a good year as did GIbson. Brooks was serviceable in replacing Rose. Mirotic was an all-rookie performer after coming over from Europe. 

The Bulls' core is as good as any in the league. They had the Cavs on the ropes in Game 4 of the Eastern conference semifinals until LeBron hit a game winner that changed the entire series. They have done a great job adding talent and depth. They will certainly keep Butler this off season yet may lose Dunleavy and Brooks in free agency. Luckily they are in a good spot to get a backup PG or good shooting wing at #22.  

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