Sunday, June 21, 2015

2015 NBA DRAFT: TEAM NEEDS: EMERGING TEAMS

I do my team needs based on the type of team they are.  In my opinion we have five different types of teams out there.

(5) THE CONTENDERS (pretty self explanatory): GS, CLV, HOU, LAC, SA 


(7) GOOD PERENNIAL PLAYOFF TEAMS (good teams with veteran stars/core, however they lack either a superstar or depth to be considered a true contender):  ATL, MEM, POR, DAL, TOR, WAS, BRK


(4) CONTENDERS WITH INJURED STARS LAST YEAR injured star with games played last year in parenthesis: CHI (Derrick Rose-51 games), OKC (Kevin Durant-27 games), IND (Paul George- 6 games) MIA (Chris Bosh-44 games)

(5) EMERGING TEAMS (These are young teams with young cores that either made or battled for a playoff spot last year,. They should become contenders or perennial playoff teams soon): 

NO, MIL, BOS, UTAH, PHO

(9) REBUILDING (self explanatory, all these teams have top 9 picks and won less than 34 games last year): CHR, DET, DEN, SAC, ORL, LAL, PHL, NY, MIN 



Notes: Projected 2013 Salary cap is 67.1 million.  


The number next to position is the range the player ranks in the NBA in regards to other starters at their position. 

In parenthesis next to the players name on the left is their true value score the average of games played the past three season and the players age 

My true value score is calculated based on 4 metrics 
True scoring: I take points per game multiplied by True Shooting Percentage 
Ball Control: Assists minus turnovers multiplied by 2 or assists to turnover ratio, which ever is higher
Hustle: The sum of rebounds, steals and blocks per game 
Plus/Minus and VORP: The average of a players plus/minus with a player value over replacement player. The plus minus gives a good indication of the players value to the team while value over replacement player is an individual advanced metric that measures  player based on the average player at his position 

The true value score is done based on a two year sample size for most players, for rookies and players that had larger roles than last year, I do the true value score based on just this season. 


UTAH JAZZ
Picks: 12, 42, 54
2014-2015 Record: 38-44
Head Coach/GM: Quin Snyder/Dennis Lindsey 
Starters/Core  
Good SF(6-10): Gordon Hayward (23.379/75.0/25)
Above Average PF (13-16): Derrick Favors (22.178/74.6/24)
Good Young C: 2013 #27 pick Rudy Gobert (21.377/82.0/22)
SG: Alec Burks (injured last year/12.008/24)
Young PG: 2013 #9 pick Trey Burke 
Young CG: 2014 #5 pick Dante Exum 
Bench/Depth:
PF: Trevor Booker 
G/F: 2014 #23 pick Rodney Hood 
SF: Joe Ingles  
SG: Elijah Millsap 
Over Priced: No one, only Hayward and Favors are making more than 5 million 
Great Value: Gobert (1.2 rookie contract), already has proved better than #27 pick, will command a big extension in 2017
2015 Cap $$$: 47.03 (10 players), does not include Booker's option 
Key Free Agents: Booker (4.78 team option), Ingles (restricted), Millsap (0.84 team option)

Team Stats:

Offensive Points Per Game: 26
Offensive Rating: 17 
Points Allowed: 1
Defensive Rating: 14
Assists Per Game: 29
Rebounds Per Game: 11
3-Point Percentage: 19
Field Goal Percentage: 19

Needs: 
Shooting big, backup combo guard
Options: 

Frank Kaminsky, Trey Lyles, Bobby Portis, Myles Turner, Sam Dekker, Jerian Grant, Kelly Oubre, Kevon Looney, Rondae Hollis Jefferson
Synopsis: 
 

The Jazz are a team on the rise. Coach Quin Snyder had this team playing at a very high level to end the season. Hayward and Favors continued to progress, however the young backcourt duo of Burke and Exum struggled. The biggest story of the season was the emergence of Gobert after they traded away Enes Kanter. The most interesting story going into next year will be how the Burks/Exum/Burke dynamic works out as none of the them are true point guards. 

They may should have a good opportunity to add a stretch four like Kaminsky, Lyles or Portis. Dekker would also be a good fit with his shooting ability. If they hit on the right prospect at #12, they may get over the hump and make the playoffs in next season. 


PHOENIX SUNS
Picks: 13, 44 
2014-2015 Record: 39-43
Head Coach/GM: Jeff Hornacek/Lonny Babby (President)/Ryan McDonough (GM)
Starters/Core  
Good PG (14-16): Eric Bledsoe (23.68/67.6/25)
Good CG/SG (8-16): Brandon Knight (18.335/70.0/23)
Average PF (15-20): Markieff Morris (17.742/81.6/26)
Young C: 2013 #5 pick Alex Len 
Average SF (18-23): PJ Tucker (15.78/79.3/30) 
Bench/Depth:
CF: Marcus Morris
F/C: Brandan Wright 
G/F: Gerald Green 
SF: 2014 #14 pick TJ Warren 
SG: Marcus Thornton 
SG: 2013 #29 pick Archie Goodwin 
Over Priced: No one, only Bledsoe is making more than 8 million 
Great Value: Markieff Morris (8.0), the exact perfect price for a good role playing #3 option 
2015 Cap $$$: 43.209 (9 players) 
Key Free Agents: Knight (restricted), Wright, Green, Thornton 

Team Stats:

Offensive Points Per Game: 11
Offensive Rating: 16 
Points Allowed: 26
Defensive Rating: 17
Assists Per Game: 27
Rebounds Per Game: 17
3-Point Percentage: 20
Field Goal Percentage: 15

Needs: 
SF upgrade, backup PG
Options: 

Sam Dekker, Kelly Oubre, Bobby Portis, Myles Turner, Cameron Payne, Jerian Grant, Frank Kaminsky, Kevon Looney, Rondae Hollis Jefferson
Synopsis: 
 

The Suns have exceeded expectations the past two seasons. They have battled for the playoffs the past two years despite not having a star to build around. Bledsoe, Knight and Markieff Morris are a solid trio but none can be considered a true star. It will be very interesting to see what the Suns do in both the draft and free agency. They will go with the best player available at #13, as they have plenty of good options there 


BOSTON CELTICS
Picks: 16, 28, 35, 45 
2014-2015 Record: 40-42
Head Coach/GM: Brad Stevens/Danny Ainge 
Starters/Core  
CG (6th man): Isaiah Thomas (18.446/72.6/26)
Average PF (15-20): Jared Sullinger (18.431/59.0/23)
Average SF (18-23): Evan Turner (15.867/81.6/26)
Young PG: 2014 #6 pick Marcus Smart 
Below Average C (21-25): Tyler Zeller (15.159/76.3/23)
Below Average SG (21-26): Avery Bradley (11.847/62.3/24)
Bench/Depth:
C/F: 2013 # 13 pick Kelly Olynyk 
SF: Jae Crowder 
PF: Brandon Bass 
PF: Jonas Jerebko 
SF: Gerald Wallace
Over Priced: Wallace (10.1), the Celtics just took on his bad contract to get more young assets and draft picks from the Brooklyn Nets 
Great Value: Thomas (6.9), was just 178 votes shy of winning the NBA 6th Man Award 
and Tuner (3.4), had a great bounce back year and looks like he has found the right team for his versatile skill set 
2015 Cap $$$: 40.406 (9 players)
Key Free Agents: Crowder (restricted), Bass, Jerebko

Team Stats:

Offensive Points Per Game: 13
Offensive Rating: 18 
Points Allowed: 22
Defensive Rating: 12
Assists Per Game: 4
Rebounds Per Game: 13
3-Point Percentage: 27
Field Goal Percentage: 21

Needs: 
Star player, shooting everywhere
Options: 

Trade up, Bobby Portis, Myles Turner, Sam Dekker, Jerian Grant, Kelly Oubre, Kevon Looney, Rondae Hollis Jefferson
Synopsis: 
 

No team exceeded expectations more than the Celtics last year. Coach Brad Stevens did an incredible job in his second season as in Boston. Now the Celtics appear like they are on the verge of becoming contenders again. They have the cap space to go after a star this summer. They also have four picks in this draft and may have up to NINE extra picks in the 2016 and 2017 drafts. Look for GM Danny Ainge to make a big splash on draft night and/or in free agency. 


MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Picks: 17, 46
2014-2015 Record: 41-41
Head Coach/GM: Jason Kidd/John Hammond 
Starters/Core  
Young CF: 2014 #2 pick Jabari Parker 
Young PG: 2013 #11 pick Michael Carter-Williams (20.189/68.0/23)
Young SF (11-17): 2013 # 15 pick Giannis Antetokounmpo (17.695/79.0/20)
Good SG (8-16): Khris Middleton (16.679/80.5/24)
Below Average C (20-23): Zaza Pachulia (16.24/59.3/31)
Bench/Depth:
SF: Jared Dudley 
C/F: John Henson  
CG: OJ Mayo 
CG: Jerryd Bayless
C: Miles Plumlee
Over Priced: Mayo (8.0), too much money for a solid but not spectacular role player 
Great Value: Dudley (4.25), much better price for a solid role player 
2015 Cap $$$: 40.235 (12 players, includes Dudley) 
Key Free Agents: Middleton (restricted), Dudley (4.25 early termination option) 

Team Stats:

Offensive Points Per Game: 22
Offensive Rating: 26 
Points Allowed: 8
Defensive Rating: 4
Assists Per Game: 7
Rebounds Per Game: 24
3-Point Percentage: 7
Field Goal Percentage: 7

Needs: 
Scoring both on the wings and up front, C upgrade
Options: 

Frank Kaminsky, Bobby Portis, Myles Turner, Sam Dekker, Jerian Grant, Kelly Oubre, Kevon Looney, Rondae Hollis Jefferson
Synopsis: 
 

The Bucks surprised many pundits by making the playoffs last season. Once Parker was lost for the season,it was assumed the Bucks would go in the tank. This wasn't the case as Middleton emerged as a scorer and Giannis improved greatly in his second NBA season. At the trade deadline they dealt Brandon Knight and acquired Michael Carter-Williams. MCW had mixed results in the 31 games he played in Milwaukee. 

The Bucks arrow is pointing upwards as Parker is set to return next year. If they can retain Middleton, they have a nice young core in Parker, MCW, Middleton and Giannis. Now GM John Hammond just needs to draft a shooter for his team to take the next step.  



NEW ORLEANS PELICANS
Pick: 56
2014-2015 Record: 45-37 
Head Coach/GM: Alvin Gentry/Dell Demps
Starters/Core  
Superstar PF (1-3) Anthony Davis (36.73/66.3/22)
Good PG/CG (14-16): Tyreke Evans (22.338/73.0/26)
Good/Average PG/CG (17-24) Jrue Holiday (23.897/50.6/24)
Average SG (17-21) Eric Gordon (15.44/55.6/26) 
Below Average C (20-23) Omer Asik (16.009/68.6/29)
CF (6th man): Ryan Anderson (13.789/54.6/27)
Bench/Depth:
CG: Norris Cole 
SF: Quincy Pondexter 
CF: Dante Cunningham 
C: Alexis Ajinca
SF: Luke Babbit
Over Priced: Gordon (15.5), he will be one of the top 10 highest paid players next year, enough said
Great Value: Davis (7.07 rookie contract), worth every penny of his rookie deal, he will get a max deal after 2016
2015 Cap $$$: 55.796 (6 players) 
Key Free Agents: Asik, Cole (restricted), Cunningham, Ajinca, Babbit 

Team Stats:

Offensive Points Per Game: 16
Offensive Rating: 8 
Points Allowed: 11
Defensive Rating: 22
Assists Per Game: 11
Rebounds Per Game: 16
3-Point Percentage: 4
Field Goal Percentage: 10

Needs: 
Center upgrade, figure out if Evans or Holiday is the starting PG
Options: 

Best player available 
Synopsis: 
 

Anthony Davis has become one of the five best players in the NBA. Now it's all about finding the right players around him. The Pelicans have a conundrum at point guard as Tyreke Evans is clearly a better player at the one than at the three. The Pelicans may experiment with bringing Holiday off the bench and keeping Evans as the starter. GM Dell Demps will also explore trade options for Holiday, but his value has dramatically dropped after two injury plagued seasons. 

New Orleans will hope to find a big man that can make the roster at #56. The key for this team this off season will be if they can retain the key free agent role players like Asik and Cole.  

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