Sunday, April 19, 2015

2015 NFL Draft: Mock 1.0 with comparison to Kiper/McShay/Walter Football Mocks

My mock is listed on Walter Football's Mock Draft Database along with over 300 mock drafts:

NFL Comparison: Byron Leftwich/Ben Roethlisberger 
Despite issues with immaturity and off the filed allegations, it appears as though Tampa will pick the former Heisman winner. Lovie Smith is the right type of coach and role model to help Winston in his young career. However the common denominator with every top 10 QB draft bust has been immaturity issues. Ryan Leaf, Vince Young, Matt Leinart and JaMarcus Russell are all examples of this. The other concern with Winston was his regression from his 2013 Heisman season to last year. Was this due to losing key pieces on offense like Kelvin Benjamin and Devonta Freeman or was it due to him just not taking the next step as a QB? Taking Winston at #1 is a risk, but Tampa NEEDS a franchise QB in the worst way.

Kiper: Winston
McShay: Winston
Walter: Winston
Consensus is Winston is going #1.  

NFL Comparison: Jake Plummer/Randall Cunningham
It seems like one way or another Mariota will be the pick here. The smartest move for the Titans would be to package the pick and trade down with either the Chargers or Bears. Both teams would be willing to trade their current QBs, Phillip Rivers and Jay Cutler respectively. Rivers' contract will expire after next year and he said he's not open to a Chargers move to Los Angeles. He's also said he would like to play in Tennessee which is near his home in Alabama. Cutler also has roots in Tennessee having played college at Vanderbilt.

Even if a trade doesn't happen, the Titans should take Mariota at #2. He's an instant upgrade over incumbent Zach Mettenberger. Mariota has the size, speed, maturity and intangibles that one looks for in a franchise QB, still many scouts doubt if he can transition to a pro style offense in the NFL.

Kiper: Mariota 
McShay: Mariota 
Walter: Mariota 
Consensus is Mariota is going #2. 

NFL Comparison: Terrell Suggs/Willie McGinist 
The Jags need an edge rusher in the worst way. This franchise hasn't had a superstar pass rusher since Kevin Hardy in the 90's. They upgraded the interior line in free agency by signing Jared Odrick. Fowler would be the perfect fit as a "Leo" edge player in Gus Bradley's defense. The "Leo" is the weak side edge player that can rush the passer, drop into coverage and set the edge. While other edge players in the class may be better pure pass rushers (Shane Ray), faster (Vic Beasley) or more explosive (Randy Gregory), no one has the size, motor and pass rushing combination that Fowler has.

Kiper: Leonard Williams
McShay: Amari Cooper
Walter: Dante Fowler 
We finally have a difference of opinion at #3. Ironically both Kiper and McShay had Fowler going to Jacksonville in their previous mock. As I said in my team needs assessment on Jacksonville, Williams is the slightly better talent than Fowler, but Fowler is the better fit. Cooper would give young Blake Bortles a very talented pass catching core to go along with newly acquired Julius Thomas, and 2014 draft picks Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson. However I still think the right pick here is Fowler. 

NFL Comparison: Richard Seymour/Gerald McCoy 
Last year the Raiders went defense in the 1st, taking Khalil Mack then got their young QB taking Derek Carr in the 2nd. If the draft unfolds this way they should do the same. They should take Williams here and then wait until the 2nd to address their biggest need which happens to be WR.

New coach Jack Del Rio built his teams in Jacksonville around two great defensive tackles in John Henderson and Marcus Stroud. Williams has the versatility to play both DE or DT in any scheme. He isn't JJ Watt (lets face it no one is) but he should be able to have an early impact similar to what Gerald McCoy has done in Tampa.

Kiper: Amari Cooper
McShay: Williams 
Walter: Williams
Kiper went with the need over value, while I have agreement with Williams from McShay and Walter. The owners and management may want a big name WR here, but if Del Rio will want Williams. 

NFL Comparison: Von Miller
With Brian Orakpo leaving for Tennessee, the Redskins can use another pass rusher to help out Ryan Kerrigan. The two best players on the board are WR's Amari Cooper and Kevin White but Washington already has one of the best duos in the NFL in Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson. This could the prime spot for a WR needy team like St. Louis, Minnesota or Miami looking to trade up. Beasley was the star of the combine running a 4.53 forty, a 6.08 3-cone drill and putting up 35 reps on the 225 bench press. Beasley is more than just an athletic freak, he was also very productive at Clemson where he had 33 sacks over the past three seasons.

Kiper: Fowler
McShay: Fowler 
Walter: Beasley 
In this scenario, Fowler is already gone therefore Beasley makes the most sense.  

NFL Comparison: Bruce Irvin 
If the Jets can add an edge rusher, they may overtake Seattle as the best defense in the NFL. Like Beasley, Ray was very productive in college. He had 22.5 sacks last year and had 8.5 sacks in 2013 despite being a backup to Kony Ealy and Michael Sam. The Jets used one of their 2013 first round picks on a defender from Missouri and took Sheldon Richardson. He is now an emerging star on the best 3-4 defensive line in football. Ray makes a lot of sense here.

Kiper: Brandon Scherff 
McShay: Randy Gregory 
Walter: Ray
Kiper goes out of the box taking an offensive lineman this early while McShay thinks the Jets are willing to take the risk on Gregory.  Walter and I both have Ray here. 

NFL Comparison: Antonio Brown/Marvin Harrison 
The Bears can give inconsistent QB Jay Cutler another weapon to have on the outside. He already has two big targets in Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett. Cooper is bigger than Harrsion and Brown, yet his route running and ability to make yards after the catch are similar to both guys.

Kiper: Kevin White 
McShay: Kevin White  
Walter: Kevin White 
Everyone agrees that the Bears will go WR, but I am the only one that feels Cooper will be the choice at #7. White is bigger and more athletic but the better football player is Cooper. Cooper is more polished and is a safer prospect than White. However scouts always point to "upside" and White clearly has more upside than Cooper (on a side note it is really killing me inside that I like and am sticking up for an Alabama player this much).  

NFL Comparison: Everson Griffin 
One mans loss is another mans gain. If not for character concerns, Randy Gregory would be the pick here. His recent failed marijuana test will cause him to drop down draft boards. Dupree may end up being the biggest beneficiary. Like Fowler, Dupree has both the size and explosiveness to play DE in a 4-3.

Kiper: Beasley
McShay: Ray
Walter: Dupree 
We all agree that Atlanta will take a pass rusher here. It would be a shock if they went in another direction.  

NFL Comparison: Bryan Bulaga as an OT/Zack Martin as an OG
The Giants need to keep Eli upright and give him time to get the ball into the hands of Odell Beckham. The Giants also need to upgrade the running game. Scherff would be an instant upgrade at OT or on the inside of the line. He's probably the safest pick to be an impact player in this entire draft class.
Kiper: Ray
McShay: Scherff 
Walter: Cooper
All three guys have different positions being addressed. The Giants historically pick the best player available over need, so it looks like everyone felt that they took the best player left in their specific mock. 

NFL Comparison: slightly smaller Julio Jones/DeAndre Hopkins 
This is a dream scenario for St. Louis but it could happen. Last year they lucked out and were able to draft a top 5 talent in Aaron Donald at #13. The pick paid immediate dividends as Donald was the Defensive Rookie of the Year and made the Pro Bowl. Can lightning strike twice for the Rams? Will they trade up for White or Cooper? Will they take a second tier WR if Cooper and White are off the board? It will be very intriguing to see what the Rams do on draft day.

Kiper: Breshad Perriman 
McShay: DeVante Parker
Walter: Scherff
Kiper and McShay agree that the Rams MUST draft a WR here while Walter has them going with the best player available in Scherff. 

NFL Comparison: Jordy Nelson
The Vikings need a #1 WR. Who better to pair young QB Teddy Bridgewater with than his former college WR. In 2013 the duo connected on 55 completions for 885 yards and 12 TDs. Even without Bridgewater, Parker was good last year putting up a 43/885/5 stat line in only 7 games. He had his best game against then #1 FSU catching 8 balls for 214 yards. He repeatedly beat PJ Williams and Ronlad Darby (both 2nd/3rd players) on big plays. The Jordy Nelson comparison makes sense given each players size and ability to make big plays down the field. Both are sure handed players that attack the football.

Kiper: Trae Waynes
McShay: La'El Collins 
Walter: Trae Waynes
Kiper and Walter have the Vikings upgrading their secondary by picking Waynes while McShay has them upgrading the O-Line by taking Collins. Waynes is clearly a possibility here, he is a perfect fit for coach Mike Zimmer's press man scheme. In a division with Green Bay and Detroit, it is important to have skilled players in the secondary. I still feel that if Parker is there at #11, it will be in the best interest of their young QB to take him.  

NFL Comparison: Fred Taylor/Marshawn Lynch 
The recent medical checkout said that Gurley was 100% healthy and good to go. As we get closer to the draft, Gurley keeps rising back up draft boards. If the Browns really want him they need to take him early. Most other mocks have him going to Miami at 14 or San Diego at 17.

Gurley's tape and on the field production are simply outstanding. Cleveland has two average young backs right now in Terrance West and Isiah Crowell. Gurley would instantly be the most talanted back on the roster. Unless the Browns move up for Mariota, they will have below average QB play this season. The only way for them to have success on offense is on the ground. Gurley could spark a very good rushing attack behind one of the best offensive lines in the league.

Kiper: Parker
McShay: Danny Shelton  
Walter: Danny Shelton 
McShay and Walter have them taking Shelton. This seems to be a very common mock pick. However they can wait till #19 and likely still get Shelton, Malcolm Brown or Eddie Goldman. Parker would be a very good choice as well. It would be very interesting to see who the Browns would take if Gurley, Parker and Shelton are all still available at #12. 

NFL Comparison: Clay Matthews/Bruce Irvin  
With two 1st round picks and five picks in the top 78, the Saints can afford to take a risk here. They were 25th in sacks last year so upgrading the pass rush is key. Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan won't care if Gregory is a choir boy as long as he can get to the QB.

Kiper: Randy Gregory 
McShay: Beasley 
Walter: Malcolm Brown 
Kiper agrees that the Saints can take the risk while McShay agrees that they need a pass rusher. Walter goes a little outside the box giving them a five technique DT. He points out that Brown could replace Cameron Jordan of he were to leave as a free agent next year. 

NFL Comparison: Stephon Gilmore
Brent Grimes is a stud, but he'll turn 32 this year. The rest of the CBs on the roster are all unproven guys. They need a big corner to guard guys like Gronk, Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. Waynes showed 4.31 speed at the combine and has long arms to contend with bigger WRs. He has the ability to be a good fit in a man or zone scheme.

Kiper: Shelton 
McShay: Breshad Perriman 
Walter: Parker
McShay and Walter have the Dolphins taking a WR while Kiper has them going DT. Adding Shelotn would give the Dolphins the best D-Line in football. Suh, Wake, Vernon and Shelton. That looks like the Fearsome Foursome or the Purple People Eaters in terms of pure talent. 

NFL Comparison: Calais Campbell 
You can't teach the type of size and length that Armstead possesses. Luckily for Armstead he has a couple of guys that can teach him all the nuances of being a 3-4 DE. Current 49ers DE's Justin Smith and Darnell Dockett have 25 years of combined experience. Armstead can develop into a star like Calias Campbell if he gets drafted to a team like that with a lot of veteran leadership.

Kiper: Armstead
McShay: Waynes
Walter: Jalen Collins 
Kiper and I agree while McShay and Walter both agree the 49ers should help their secondary.  

NFL Comparison: Kam Chancellor 
The Texans really don't have a glaring need other than QB. They will likely go best player available regardless of position. Collins would be a good fit in Romeo Crennel's scheme. Crennel runs a 3-4 cover 1 scheme with a roaming safety. They signed Rahim Moore this off season to be the roaming free safety. Collins would fit as the perfect in the box safety, He has the size to be great player in run support and to cover tight ends.

Kiper: Dupree
McShay: Dorial Green Beckham
Walter: Todd Gurley 
WOW, all 3 guys have a different guy. This is a tough choice to predict. Dupree would be an interesting fit to help an already good pass rush led by JJ Watt. DGB would be an interesting fit to help relieve double teams off of WR DeAndre Hopkins. Gurley is an ultimate wild card. Would they pair him with Arian Foster or look to deal Arian right after?  

NFL Comparison: BJ Raji
The Chargers need some upgrades on the defensive line. Shelton gives them versatility the size to play nose tackle and the agility/quickness to play the three technique. The crazy thing is that if they swap picks with Tennessee in a deal involving Phillip Rivers, the Titans may end up taking Shelton here as well. The Titans need just as much help on the D-Line as the Chargers do.

Kiper: Malcolm Brown 
McShay: Todd Gurley   
Walter: Ereck Flowers 
Kiper and I share the same opinion that San Diego needs to upgrade the D-Line while McShay has the Chargers adding the top RB in Gurley. Walter has the Chargers upgrading the offensive line. 

NFL Comparison: Justin Pugh as an OT/Marshall Yanda as an OG
The Chiefs had major problems on the offensive line last year. Collins would give them a guy that can come in and compete for the RT or RG starting job and eventually he may overtake former #1 overall pick Eric Fisher at LT.
Kiper: Jaelen Strong
McShay: Cameron Erving
Walter: La'el Collins
McShay and Walter agree that KC needs to upgrade the O-Line while Kiper has them adding a WR. Strong and Perriman could be interesting options here. 

NFL Comparison: Dan Williams
Last year the Browns were DEAD LAST against the run giving up 144 rushing yards per game (and this is a passing league). They need a big anchor inside and Brown would be a good fit as a 3-4 nose tackle. He also has the versatility and quickness to play the three technique.

Kiper: Gurley 
McShay: Ereck Flowers  
Walter: DJ Humphries
McShay and Walter both have Cleveland addressing the trenches on the offensive side of the ball while Kiper has them taking Gurley (I have them taking Gurley at #12)

NFL Comparison: Jeremy Maclin
What better way the replace Jeremy Maclin than by drafting a player that is similar to him in both size and skill set. Agholor is move moving up draft boards lately and he would be a perfect fit in Chip Kelly's system. Kelly love guys with versatility, speed and high college production. Agholor posted a stat line of 104/1313/12 and also returned two kicks for touchdowns. The Eagles would instantly have one of the best young WR duos in the league with Agholor and Jordan Matthews.

Kiper: Landon Collins 
McShay: Landon Collins
Walter: Jaelen Strong
Walter and I both have the Eagles going WR while Kiper and McShay both have Landon Collins going here. I have Collins going #16, if he were here at #20, the Eagles would certainly have to consider him. 

NFL Comparison: faster Anquan Boldin
Breshad Perriman seems to be the darling of the draft season after posting an amazing 4.25 forty. Many draft pundits have him going in the top 15. However the Bengals usually value high level college production over a player's measurements. Strong's numbers the past two years at ASU were very good. 75/1122/7 in 2013 and 85/1162/10 in 2014. The Bengals may go DT here if Malcolm Brown or Danny Shelton were still on the board.

Kiper: Devin Funches
McShay: Andrus Peat 
Walter: Randy Gregory
Kiper and I have the Bengals adding a WR while Todd has them going OT. Peat would make a lot of sense as an eventual replacement for Andrew Whitworth at LT. Walter has Gregory dropping all the way down to #21. A draft day slide is clearly possible with his off the field issues.  

NFL Comparison: Sam Shields
The Steelers D was torched on many a deep ball last year. Longtime CB Ike Taylor just retired and they need a player that can come in and start from day one. Marcus Peters may be just as good as Johnson, but Pittsburgh doesn't have time to deal with his immaturity issues. Johnson was a three year starter in the ACC.

Kiper: Kevin Johnson
McShay: Armstead 
Walter: Landon Collins 
Everyone but McShay feels that Pittsburgh will improve the secondary. Its worth noting that McShay's most recent mock was before both Ike Taylor and Troy Polamalu announced their retirements. 

NFL Comparison: Jared Veldheer
The Lions have two good lineman in Riley Rieff and Larry Warford. If they draft Peat, they can then move Reiff over to RT. QB Matthew Stafford and the entire Lions' offense struggled in 2014 due to shaky line play. Peat is the best player on the board and fills a major need here.

Kiper: La'el Collins
McShay: Malcolm Brown  
Walter: Melvin Gordon
All three experts have the Lions going in different directions. They will certainly look to add a complement back to help Joique Bell. Gordon would be a nice pick, but they have bigger holes in the trenches.  I agree with Kiper and McShay that the Lions need to address both the O-Line and D-Line.  

NFL Comparison: Kamerion Wimbley
Calais Campbell does a great job getting pressure from the 5 technique but the Cards lack an outside pass rush. Harold is the best of the next tier of edge defenders. Harold is a long, athletic edge player that is solid in both pass rush and coverage.

Kiper: Melvin Gordon 
McShay: Bud Dupree
Walter: Jordan Phillips
Once again we have a three way split in terms of position. All three guys chose the Cards' biggest needs: RB, Edge Rusher and Nose Tackle 

NFL Comparison: D'Brickashaw Ferguson 
The retirement of Jordan Gross leaves a huge void at LT. It would be the shock of the draft if Carolina doesn't take a LT at #25. I have Humphries here over Ereck Flowere because he is a more natural LT prospect. Flowers is bigger, stronger and is a better run blocker. But the Panthers need a sure fire LT that can come in and start form day one. Humphries is very athletic for his size and has the length that scouts look for. He underachieved at Florida, relying too much on athletic ability and not enough technique. However with the right coaching, he can develop into a Pro Bowl player.

Kiper: Humphries 
McShay: TJ Clemmings  
Walter: Peat
All 3 experts have the Panthers taking an OT. If Peat is still on the board I think they take him over Humphries. 

NFL Comparison: Mike Wallace
Perriman can fly and QB Joe Flacco has arguably the best deep ball in the league. It looks like a perfect match to me. Perriman seems to be the darling of the draft season after posting an amazing 4.25 forty. Rumors are that he may crack the top 10. That seems a little far fetched when you consider all the other WR options that are more polished.

Kiper: Marcus Peters
McShay: Strong
Walter: Perriman 
Walter and I agree on the player while McShay agrees on the position. Marcus Peters is certainly an option here if the top six WRs are all off the board. 

NFL Comparison: Matt Forte
The Cowboys let DeMarco Murray walk in free agency. Jerry Jones should be very happy if Gordon is here at #27. Never rule out a trade up with Dallas if the price is right.

Kiper: Byron Jones 
McShay: Eddie Goldman  
Walter: Marcus Peters
All three experts have different players, however Kiper and Walter both have Dallas taking a corner. Goldman would also be a great fit to anchor the middle of a weak defensive line. 

NFL Comparison: Andrew Whitworth 
The Broncos are already set on the left side with Ryan Clady, but the right side can use an upgrade. Flowers can come in and fight for the starting job at RT. He has incredible size and strength. He has some issues in pass protection, but having a great RG like Louis Vasquez next to him will help him a lot. The Broncos will continue to upgrade the running game to keep defense's honest and take less pressure off of Peyton Manning.

Kiper: Cameron Erving
McShay: Humphries 
Walter: Owa Odighizuwa
Kiper and McShay are in agreement with me thinking the Broncos will upgrade the O-Line while Walter has them taking a pass rusher. 

NFL Comparison: Eric Wood  
Anthony Castonzo is good, Jack Mewhort showed flashes as a rookie and signing Todd Herremans was a good move. However they need major upgrades at RT and C. With his ability to play C and OT, Cameron Irving would be the perfect player to target at #29. The Colts need to keep upgrading the O-Line to help Andrew Luck eventually become the best QB in the NFL.

Kiper: Peat 
McShay: Harold 
Walter: Erving 
Walter and I agree on the player, while Kiper agrees on upgrading the O-Line. Harold would be very enticing if he were still on the board, as the Colts need a young pass rusher to groom under Robert Mathis and Trent Cole. 

NFL Comparison: Lavonte David
They had to move Clay Matthews inside last year due to lack of skill inside. It helped the defense as a whole but took away from his pass rush ability on the outside. Getting a play maker like Kendricks here is crucial to this team's Super Bowl hopes. It is also likely that they trade out of the 1st and still land either Kendricks or another LB like Benardrick McKinney or Denzel Perryman. Kendricks, McKinney and Perryman will all likely be long gone when the Packers pick again at #62.

Kiper: Jalen Collins
McShay: Marcus Peters
Walter: Kendricks
Walter I agree for the 3rd time in the last 5 picks, while Kiper and McShay each have the Pack taking a different CB. 

NFL Comparison: Rolando McClain/Brian Cushing   
In this mock I have the Saints taking a risk at #13 with Randy Gregory. If that comes to fruition, then the Saints will likely take a low risk/sure thing player at #31. Like the Packers, the Saints need a play maker at ILB. McKinney has a nice blend of size, skill and college production. He can come in and compete for a starting job right away. The Saints currently have two below average ILBs in David Hawthorne and Dannelle Ellerbe.

Kiper: Aghlor
McShay: Kevin Johnson 
Walter: Phillip Dorsett
Kiper and Walter have the Saints taking a WR, but both of the WRs they have mocked to the Saints are very similar to Brandin Cooks. I think they wait on a WR until the 3rd. McShay has them taking a CB.  I just don't get this pick considering they already have a good pair of starters with Keenan Lewis and Brandon Browner and let's not forget they used a high draft pick on Stanley Jean Baptiste last year. 

NFL Comparison: Vontae Davis 
The Patriots make a living in the draft on taking risks. Peters has some major immaturity issues, but once he steps into a locker room, he will realize that he will need an attitude adjustment if he wants to play with a winning organization. With Revis and Browner both leaving this off season, the Patriots need to fill the void at CB and Peters' is worth the risk at #32.

Kiper: Eddie Goldman
McShay: Byron Jones
Walter: Eddie Goldman
Kiper and Walter both like Goldman and he may very well be the pick here despite a horrible Pro Day. He was very god at FSU and it may be interesting for New England to pair him with a former Florida Gator in Dominique Easley and the two of them will replace the void in the middle left by former Miami Hurricane Vince Wilfork. A LOT of talent in the sunshine state. 

My Exact pick agreement for each expert: 
Kiper: 5
McShay: 3
Walter: 11

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