Sunday, March 14, 2010

My Final Bracket

MIDWEST

Oklahoma City
1)Kansas
16)Winthrop

8)Marquette
9)UNLV

Spokane
5)Wisconsin
12)St. Mary's

4)Vandy
13)Oakland

Providence
6)Northern Iowa
11)Wake Forest

3)Villanova
14)Wofford

Spokane
7)California
10)OK St.

2)Purdue
15)UCSB

EAST

Milwaukee
1)Kentucky
16)Play-In Game, Lehigh vs. ARK-Pine Bluff

8)San Diego St.
9)Notre Dame

New Orleans
5)Michigan St.
12)Old Dominion

4)Texas A&M
13)New Mexico St.

Jacksonville
6)Richmond
11)Cornell

3)Georgetown
14)Sam Houston St.

Oklahoma City
7)Georgia Tech
10)Mississippi St. (Bubble 1)

2)Kansas St.
15)Montana

SOUTH

Jacksonville
1)Duke
16)Robert Morris

8)Mizzou
9)UTEP

New Orleans
5)Tennessee
12)Minnesota

4)Pittsburgh
13)Murray St.

San Jose
6)BYU
11)Washington

3)Baylor
14)North Texas

Buffalo
7)Xavier
10)FSU

2)West Virginia
15)Morgan St.

WEST

Buffalo
1)Syracuse
16)E. Tennessee St.

8)Texas
9)Clemson

San Jose
5)Butler
12)Utah St.

4)New Mexico
13)Houston

Providence
6)Maryland
11)Siena

3)Temple
14)Ohio

Milwaukee
7)Gonzaga
10)Louisville

2)Ohio St.
15)Vermont

Teams that have already received automatic bids by winning their conference are in bold.

Last 4 In:
Utah St.
Minnesota
Mississippi St.
UTEP

First 4 Out:
Florida
Virginia Tech
Illinois
Rhode Island

Next 4 Out:
Arizona St.
Dayton
Ole Miss
Memphis

Conference Breakdown:
Big East-8
Big 12-7
ACC-6
Big Ten-5
SEC-4
MWC-4
Atlantic 10-3
Pac 10-2
USA-2
WCC-2
WAC-2
20 one-bid leagues.

My Final Bubble Breakdown:

After watching Mississippi St. outplay and take the second best team in the nation to overtime, I would be shocked if they are left out of the tournament. They beat Vandy and fellow bubble team Florida in the past 2 days as well. They clearly deserve to be one of the last 3 teams in.

My final numbers give me 31 conference winners along with 31 at-large locks. That gives us 62 of the 65 teams. That leaves only 3 bubble spots. I think Mississippi St. is in based on what they did this weekend.

I think the tournament committee will give the Big Ten 5 teams overall. Illinos and Minnesota have such similar resumes, it's scary. Both have 5 wins over top 50 RPI teams and 4 sub-.100 RPI losses. Minnesota beat Ohio St. in the regular season but is getting killed in the title game right now. Illinois lost 3 times to Ohio St. Both have a key non-conference win. Minnesota beat Butler while Illinois beat Vandy. Both had good wins in the Big Ten tournament as well. Minnesota crushed Purdue by 27, while Illinois beat Wisconsin. But the deciding factor for me is Minnesota's 2-point win at Illinois on February 27th. That is why I have Minnesota in.

So that leaves one spot left! Five teams, Utah St., Florida, Virginia Tech, Rhode Island and Illinois (If the Big Ten can somehow get 6 teams in) all have a shot at this last spot. Ole Miss, Arizona St., Dayton, and Memphis can kiss their hopes good bye.

So lets take a look at the blind resume's without any name attachments:

Team A: (19-14, 10-8) RPI-75, SOS-35, record vs. RPI-100 (6-10), RPI top 50 wins-#20 (twice), #25, #32, @#34

Team B: (21-12, 9-7) RPI-54, SOS-33, record vs RPI-100 (7-11), RPI top 50 wins-#14, #32 (neut.), #42.

Team C: (27-7, 14-2) RPI-31, SOS-100, record vs. RPI-100 (10-5), RPI top 50 wins-#23, #43.

Team D: (23-8, 10-6) RPI-60, SOS-133, record vs. RPI-100 (8-7), RPI top 50 wins-#33, #34, #37.

Team E: (23-9, 9-7) RPI-40, SOS-73, record vs. RPI-100 (7-7), RPI top 50 wins-#29.

In my opinion I give it to Team C. Team C is Utah St. who despite playing in a weaker conference is more deserving then the other teams. Here are the other teams:

Team A-Illinois
Team B-Florida
Team D-Virginia Tech
Team E-Rhode Island

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