16)Play-In Game, Lehigh vs. ARK-Pine Bluff
8)San Diego St.
13)New Mexico St.
14)Sam Houston St.
10)Mississippi St. (Bubble 1)
16)E. Tennessee St.
Teams that have already received automatic bids by winning their conference are in bold.
Last 4 In:
First 4 Out:
Next 4 Out:
20 one-bid leagues.
My Final Bubble Breakdown:
After watching Mississippi St. outplay and take the second best team in the nation to overtime, I would be shocked if they are left out of the tournament. They beat Vandy and fellow bubble team Florida in the past 2 days as well. They clearly deserve to be one of the last 3 teams in.
My final numbers give me 31 conference winners along with 31 at-large locks. That gives us 62 of the 65 teams. That leaves only 3 bubble spots. I think Mississippi St. is in based on what they did this weekend.
I think the tournament committee will give the Big Ten 5 teams overall. Illinos and Minnesota have such similar resumes, it's scary. Both have 5 wins over top 50 RPI teams and 4 sub-.100 RPI losses. Minnesota beat Ohio St. in the regular season but is getting killed in the title game right now. Illinois lost 3 times to Ohio St. Both have a key non-conference win. Minnesota beat Butler while Illinois beat Vandy. Both had good wins in the Big Ten tournament as well. Minnesota crushed Purdue by 27, while Illinois beat Wisconsin. But the deciding factor for me is Minnesota's 2-point win at Illinois on February 27th. That is why I have Minnesota in.
So that leaves one spot left! Five teams, Utah St., Florida, Virginia Tech, Rhode Island and Illinois (If the Big Ten can somehow get 6 teams in) all have a shot at this last spot. Ole Miss, Arizona St., Dayton, and Memphis can kiss their hopes good bye.
So lets take a look at the blind resume's without any name attachments:
Team A: (19-14, 10-8) RPI-75, SOS-35, record vs. RPI-100 (6-10), RPI top 50 wins-#20 (twice), #25, #32, @#34
Team B: (21-12, 9-7) RPI-54, SOS-33, record vs RPI-100 (7-11), RPI top 50 wins-#14, #32 (neut.), #42.
Team C: (27-7, 14-2) RPI-31, SOS-100, record vs. RPI-100 (10-5), RPI top 50 wins-#23, #43.
Team D: (23-8, 10-6) RPI-60, SOS-133, record vs. RPI-100 (8-7), RPI top 50 wins-#33, #34, #37.
Team E: (23-9, 9-7) RPI-40, SOS-73, record vs. RPI-100 (7-7), RPI top 50 wins-#29.
In my opinion I give it to Team C. Team C is Utah St. who despite playing in a weaker conference is more deserving then the other teams. Here are the other teams:
Team D-Virginia Tech
Team E-Rhode Island