Sunday, March 15, 2009

NCAA-Bracketology (My Final Bracket)

It is finally here, Selection Sunday. I just finished watching Mississippi St. beat Tennessee in the SEC Championship in one of the best games of during Championship Week. Mississippi St.'s win

Here is my 65 team field as of right now with my s-curve.
The sites are:
Regionals:
East-Boston (host-Boston College)
South-Memphis (host-Memphis)
MW-Indianapolis (host-Butler)
West-Phoenix Area-Glendale,AZ (host-Ariz. St.)
Opening Rounds:
Philadelphia (PHL)-(host-St. Joseph's)
Dayton (DAY)-(host-Dayton)
Greensboro, NC (NC)-(host- The ACC)
Miami (MIA)-(host-FIU)
Kansas City (KC)-(host-The Big 12)
Minneapolis (MN)-(host-Minnesota)
Boise,ID (Boise)-(host-Boise St.)
Portland (POR)-(host-Oregon)
Teams cannot play in the region/site that they host, conferences can
Confernece Champions are denoted with a -x

1-S-UNC (NC)
1-E-Pittsburgh (DAY)
1-MW-Louisville (DAY) (Big East)-x
1-W-Memphis (KC) (USA)-x

2-W-Oklahoma (KC)
2-MW-Michigan St. (MN)
2-E-Duke (NC)-x
2-S-UConn (PHL)

3-S-Mizzou (Boise) (Big 12)-x
3-E-Villanova (MN)
3-MW-Kansas (Boise)
3-W-WFU (PHL)

4-W-Washington (POR)
4-MW-Illinois/Ohio St. (if they win Big Ten Champ)
4-E-Pudue
4-S-Syracuse (MIA)

5-S-Xavier
5-E-FSU
5-MW-Ariz. St.
5-W-Gonzaga (WCC)-x

6-W-Illinois/Ohio St. (if they lose Big Ten Champ)
6-MW-Utah (MWC)-x
6-E-Tennessee
6-S-UCLA

7-S-Butler
7-E-OK St.
7-MW-WVU
7-W-LSU

8-W-Marquette
8-MW-Clemson
8-E-California
8-S-Texas

9-S-Wisconsin (Bubble 1)
9-E-BYU
9-MW-Texas A&M
9-W-Dayton

10-W-Utah St. (WAC)-x
10-MW-Temple (Atlantic 10)-x
10-E-Michigan (Bubble 2)
10-S-Boston College

11-S-Minnesota (Bubble 4)
11-E-No. Iowa (MVC)-x
11-MW-USC (PAC-10)-x
11-W-Siena (MAAC)-x

12-W-Maryland (Bubble 3)
12-MW-Creighton (Bubble 5)
12-E-WKU (Sun Belt)-x
12-S-Miss. St. (SEC)-x

13-S-VCU (Colonial)-x
13-E-American (Patriot)-x
13-MW-Cleveland St. (Horizon)-x
13-W-Stephen F. Austin (Southland)-x

14-W-Binghamton (AEC)-x
14-MW-CSU Northridge(Big West)-x
14-E-Akron (MAC)-x
14-S-Portland St. (Big Sky)-x

15-S-ETSU (A-Sun)-x
15-E-Cornell (Ivy)-x
15-MW-North Dakota St. (Summit)-x
15-W-Robert Morris (NEC)-x

16-W-Morehead St. (OVC)-x
16-MW-Radford (Big South)-x
16-E-Play In Game-Alabama St. (SWAC)-x vs. UT-Chattanooga (SoCon)-x
16-S-Morgan St. (MEAC)-x

Last 4 In:
Creighton
Minnesota
Maryland
Michigan

First 4 Out:
San Diego St.
Auburn
Arizona
Penn St.

Next 4 Out:
St. Mary's
Florida
Providence
S. Carolina

Conference Breakdown:
Big East-7
ACC-7
Big Ten-7
Big 12-6
PAC 10-5
SEC-3
Atlantic 10-3
MWC-2
Horizon-2
MVC-2
21 One bid leagues

My Final Bubble expalnation:
-Several low bubble teams left nothing to chance as they ran the gauntlet and won their conference tournament. Those teams were Siena, Western Kentucky, Temple, USC, Utah St., and Mississippi St.
-Some high bubble teams became locks this weekend with good/decent showings. They were Ohio St. (who can still win the Big Ten which is going on now), Boston College (which beat Virginia, then barely lost to Duke by one point), and Dayton (who went 1-1 in the Atlantic 10 tournament but still finished with a RPI in the top30).
-Three of my intersting late bloomers lost in the the quarterfinals of their conference tournament, that knocked all of them out. Those were New Mexico, URI, and Kansas St.
-Some other teams who saw their bubble's burst in the quarterfinals of their conference tournament were
Providence (blown out by Louisville)
Virginia Tech (beat by UNC)
UNLV (beat for a third time by San Diego St.)
S. Carolina (beat by eventual SEC Champ Mississippi St.)
Florida (beat by Auburn)
UAB (lost in USA semis to Tulsa, who was then blown out by Memphis)

That left 31 Automatic bids along with 29 at-large locks giving us 60 teams that are locks. That leaves 5 bubble spots avalible.
So I ranked by bubble teams as such with their resume:
1) Wisconsin (19-12, 10-8), RPI-45, SOS-16, (8-4) in last 12, key wins-swept Michigan and Penn St., @Virginia Tech, Illinois (4-10) vs. RPI top 50, (9-11) vs. RPI top 100.
Analysis-When I analyzed the 4 Big Ten bubble teams I took a good look at thier record vs. each other. Wisconsin went 4-2 against the other 3 Big Ten bubble teams and also has been the best as of late of all of the Big Ten bubble teams going 8-4 in their last 12. Those two things alone put them in, despite their lack of quality non-conference wins.

2) Michigan-(22-13, 9-9), RPI-44, SOS-11, key wins-Duke, UCLA-Neut., Illinois, swept MINN, (5-10) vs. RPI top 50 and (10-12), vs. RPI top 100. (6-6) in last 12, great SOS-10, bad road record (3-8).
Analysis-They have too many quality wins, plus a great SOS and a RPI in the top 45. They should be in. Duke winning the ACC Championship today also helps them.

3) Maryland-(20-13, 7-9), RPI-55, SOS-17, key wins-Michigan St.-Neut., Michigan, UNC, WFU, Virginia Tech, (4-8) vs. RPI top 50, (8-11) vs. RPI top 100. (6-6) in last 12.
Analysis-Like Michigan they have many key wins, including 4 wins over top 10 teams. They also have a great SOS and beat Michigan who is in. In the ACC tournament they proved they can play with anyone by beating Wake then almost upsetting Duke.

4) Minnesota-(22-10, 9-9), RPI-42, SOS-35, key wins-Louisville-neut., Illinois, N.D. St., swept Wisconsin, split with Penn St., (5-8) vs. RPI top 50, (9-10) vs. RPI top 100, (5-7) in last 12.
Analysis-They better thank Louisville for winning the Big East if they get in. They have struggled as of late but they should be the 7th Big Ten team in the dance.

5) Creighton-(26-7, 14-4), RPI-40, SOS-111, Lost in MVC Semis (blown out), MVC conf. RPI-9, (11-1) in last 12 Key wins-Dayton, New Mexico, split UNI, (2-2) vs RPI top 50, (9-5) vs. RPI top 100.
Analysis-For my last spot in the dance I gave it to Creighton just over San Diego St. because of how well they finished the season and because of thier 18 point win against Dayton.

Just Out:
6) San Diego St.-(23-9, 11-5), RPI-34, SOS-41, key wins-3 wins vs. UNLV, (1-2) vs. Utah and BYU, (2-6) vs. RPI top 50, (7-9) vs. RPI top 100, (8-4) in last 12, 2 losses to fellow bubble teams ARZ and St. Mary's.
Analysis-They have a better RPI and SOS than Creighton, but their only key wins were in their conference. It is a shame because they only lost by two points to Utah last night in the MWC Championship. They will either be one of the last ones in or out.


7) Auburn-(22-11, 10-6), RPI-63, SOS-62, (9-3) in last 12, key wins- Tennessee, LSU, Florida but all 3 were splits, (7-9) vs. RPI top 100
Analysis-Like the JoJo song says, it was just a little too late. The Tigers played really well late but the Mississippi St. win plus their lack of any non-conference wins along with a sub 60 RPI seals the Tigers fate to the NIT.

8) Arizona-(19-13, 9-9), RPI-62, SOS-34, key wins-Kansas, Gonzaga-Neut., S.D. St., UCLA, Washington, went (7-5) in last 12 but lost 5 of last 6 games to end season, (6-10) vs. RPI top 50, (8-12) vs. RPI top 100, bad road record (2-9).
Analysis-Like Maryland and Michigan they have some very good key wins. However you just can't finish 1-5 and have a sub 60 RPI and hope to somehow get in. Their big name players and tradition may factor in the committee's decision, but they don't deserve to be in over Creighton or San Diego St.

9) Penn St.-(22-11, 10-8), RPI-70, SOS-93, key wins-@ Mich. St., swept Illinois, split Purdue, (6-10) vs. RPI top 50 (7-5) in last 12, good record with a 22 win season
Analysis-They are simply the odd team out from the Big Ten. They don't have the RPI of the other teams in their league and they lack any key non-conference wins. Good year, but not good enough to go dancing

10) St. Mary's-(26-6, 10-4), RPI-47, Lost in WCC Championship (blown out by Gonzaga), WCC conf. RPI-15, (7-5) in last 12 key wins-all vs. fellow bubble teams, S.D. St. and Providence both Neut. and Utah St. without star PG Patty Mills. (3-4) vs. RPI top 100, bad SOS-149
Analysis-I know they did not have Mills for a good deal of the season. But he is not healthy enough and St. Mary's just doesn;t deserve to be in over any of the above teams. They really didn't deserve to be in last year .I also don't think it's right that they scheduled a game after the WCC championship to show that Mills is healthy and to give them another win. If he was healthy they would have not gotten blown out by Gonzaga and wouldn't need to schedule another game. If they somehow get in it will be absolute bull you know what.

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