Friday, March 6, 2009

Bracketology 101

Here is my 65 team field as of right now with my s-curve.
The sites are:
Regionals:East-Boston (host-Boston College)
South-Memphis (host-Memphis)
MW-Indianapolis (host-Butler)
West-Phoenix Area-Glendale,AZ (host-Ariz. St.)

Opening Rounds:
Philadelphia (PHL)-(host-St. Joseph's)
Dayton (DAY)-(host-Dayton)
Greensboro, NC (NC)-(host- The ACC)
Miami (MIA)-(host-FIU)
Kansas City (KC)-(host-The Big 12)
Minneapolis (MN)-(host-Minnesota)
Boise,ID (Boise)-(host-Boise St.)
Portland (POR)-(host-Oregon)
Teams cannot play in the region/site that they host, conferences can

1-E-UConn (PHL)
1-MW-Pittsburgh (DAY)
1-S-UNC (NC)
1-W-Memphis (KC)

2-W-Louisville (DAY)
2-S-Oklahoma (KC)
2-MW-Michigan St. (MN)
2-E-Duke (NC)

3-E-Villanova (Boise)
3-MW-Kansas (MN)
3-S-WFU (MIA)
3-W-Washington (POR)

4-W-Mizzou (Boise)
4-S-Xavier (PHL)
4-MW-UCLA (POR)
4-E-Illinois (MIA)

5-E-Clemson
5-MW-Gonzaga
5-S-Purdue
5-W-WVU

6-W-Utah
6-S-LSU
6-MW-FSU
6-E-California

7-E-Tennessee
7-MW-Syracuse/Marquette (winner 3/7 @ 2pm)
7-S-Ariz. St.
7-W-Butler

8-W-Minnesota
8-S-Syracuse/Marquette (loser)
8-MW-Texas
8-E-BYU

9-E-OK St.
9-MW-Wisconsin
9-S-Texas A&M
9-W-Dayton

10-W-Boston Coll.
10-S-Ohio St.
10-MW-S. Carolina
10-E-Creighton

11-E-UNLV/ San Diego St (winner 3/7 @ 10pm)
11-MW-Rhode Island
11-S-Siena (MAAC)
11-W-Penn St.

12-W-Utah St. (WAC)
12-S-Arizona
12-MW-Maryland (unless they lose @ Virginia, then I would have Virginia Tech if they upset FSU this weekend)
12-E-WKU (Sun Belt)

13-E-Miami-OH (MAC)
13-MW-Davidson (SoCon)
13-S-George Mason (Colonial)
13-W-No. Iowa (MVC)

14-W-Weber St. (Big Sky)
14-S-Binghamton (AEC)
14-MW-American (Patriot)
14-E-SFA (Southland)

15-E-Cornell (Ivy)-x
15-MW-N.D. St. (Summit)
15-S-Robert Morris (NEC)
15-W-Jacksonville (A-Sun)

16-W-CSU-Northridge (Big West)
16-S-Austin Peay (OVC)
16-MW-Margan St. (MEAC)
16-E-Play In Game -Alabama St. (SWAC) vs. Radford (Big South)

Last 4 In:
Rhode Island
UNLV-S.D. St. (Winner)
Maryland
Arizona

Others barely in:
Penn St.
S. Carolina
Creighton
Ohio St.
Boston Coll.
Dayton

Last 4 Out:
UNLV-S.D. St. (Loser)
Florida-Kentucky (Winner 3/7 @ 2pm)
Virginia Tech
St. Mary's

Next 4 Out:
UAB
Michigan
Providence
Temple

Conference Breakdown:
Big East-7
ACC-7
Big Ten-7
Big 12-6
PAC 10-5
SEC-3
MWC-3
Atlantic 10-3
MVC-2
22 One Bid Leagues
All choices from smaller conferences are based on the regular season conference champion unless already eliminated in their conference tournament, that's why Austin Peay is in from the OVC rather than UT-Martin. As of right now only Cornell has clinched a spot in the dance by winning their conference on Friday night.

Thoughts on my bracket:
I have 3 matchups this Saturday that will still determine some spots. The Marquette-Syracuse game is big as it would give Marquette a 7 seed in nearby Minnesota. In the Big East Conference I moved WVU to a 5 seed but shipped them out to Boise. I was going to put Marquette there. The UNLV-S.D. St. game is big as will determine the third best team in the MWC. If UNLV wins, it will guarantee a rematch in the quarterfinals of next week's MWC Tournament in Las Vegas. The Florida-Kentucky winner still has an outside shot at an at-large but the loser is pretty much eliminated. Both teams have struggle mightily of late and the loser will close out the season on a 4 game losing streak.

For my last spot I was having trouble picking between Rhode Island (A-10) , UAB (USA), and St. Mary's (WCC) who all have similar profiles. They all have a RPI in the 40s, at least 20 wins, and at least on key win against another bubble team. They all come from mid-major/small conferences and none of them have beaten the highly ranked team that pretty much owns that conference (Xavier-A 10, Memphis-USA, Gonzaga-WCC). St Mary's has been playing decent without star Patty Mills but the tiebreaker for me was how the teams had played of late. So I gave the last spot to Rhode Island who a couple of weeks ago I thought had no shot at getting in the dance. But they have won 6 straight and is 10-2 in their last 12.

Some interesting possible tournament games if this were the real bracket:
1st Round-
Duke vs. Cornell-A battle of two really smart schools, the Ivy League of the South against the Ivy League champion
Clemson vs. WKU-Clemson was a 5 seed last year and lost in the 1st Round while WKU was a 12 seed last year and went to the Sweet 16, could history repeat itself
UCLA-Davidson-Stephen Curry and company take a trip west to play Darren Collison and UCLA who is trying to got to the Final Four for the 4th straight year
Minnesota vs. Dayton-this would be the best 8-9 matchup for the right to play Memphis

2nd Round
Oklahoma vs. Ariz. St.-A battle of two All-American's, Player of the year PF-Blake Griffin vs. SG-James Harden.
UCLA vs. Gonzaga-Remember the Elite 8 game that Gonzaga blew a couple of years ago, this could be a revenge game. Both teams are very talented and this would be a great 2nd Round game in Portland.

Sweet 16
Duke vs. Villanova-I have Nova getting shipped out to Boise but if they win there they would go to nearby Boston to face Duke in a battle of two talented guard oriented teams.

Elite 8
Memphis vs. Louisville-Two great teams, two great coaches Calipari and Pitino, and two great programs meet for a chance to go to the Final Four. The two former Conference USA rivals are both very athletic and talented.

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