2022 NBA DRAFT: Positional Breakdown: Potential Franchise Players

Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith 
 


I have previously profiled the role players that will be available in this class. Now it is time for the guys that have the potential to be franchise players. Unlike years past there is no clear-cut number one guy, instead three top guys and two others that can also become franchise players. As of right now the Orlando Magic are still deciding what to do with the number one overall pick.

Here is my list:




Paolo Banchero-PF/C-Duke 
Fr./19.6 yrs
17.2 PTS      7.8 REB        3.2 AST        1.1 STL
Hometown: Portland, OR
Best Case NBA Comparison: Chris Webber
Likely NBA Comparison: Al Horford/Carlos Boozer
ROLE:
Elite Staring Big than can facilitate an offense
BEST TOOLS:

  • Passing and Ball skills for a Big
  • Playmaking
  • Alpha Mentality
  • Versatility
In my humble opinion, Banchero is the best player overall in the draft. He is a chiseled 250 pounds that is NBA ready. He was the clear-cut best player and go to guy for a Duke team that will have 5 guys drafted on draft night. He got better as the season went along and led Duke to the Final Four. He isn’t quite the Blake Griffin or Amar'e Stoudemire athlete, but he can throw it down with the best of them. There are some concerns that he is not a great defender but given his athletic ability and length he can still be serviceable on defense.

I like to judge prospects based on floor and I think AT WORST we are talking about a Horford or Boozer type of player in Banchero. He is an excellent passer for a big man and his shot is improving. He has the right mentality to be successful in the league as he has been quoted many times that he feels that he is the best player in the draft.

He would fit perfectly on both Orlando and Houston. If I were the Magic I would take him at number one and build my roster like the early 2000’s Kings with Banchero as my Chris Webber. He probably would be in the best position for success in Houston playing alongside a young scorer like Jalen Green and another young big in Alperen Şengün.



Chet vs Steph Curry 


Chet Holmgren-PF-Gonzaga     
7'1''/200/7'6''
14.4 PTS      9.9 REB        3.7 BLK        39.0%-3PT                                  
Fr./20.1
Hometown: Saint Paul, MN
Best Case NBA Comparison: Modern Kevin McHale
Likely NBA Comparison: Marcus Camby/Taller Christian Wood
ROLE:
Versatile Starting Power Forward with Superstar Potential
BEST TOOLS:

  • Shooting
  • Shot Blocking
  • Elite Length
  • Soft touch with both hands
  • Toughness

Holmgren is as unique a prospect as anyone has seen in decades. He skill set in undeniable, but the major question mark is regarding his slight frame. Is he over 200 pounds? Can he eventually get up to a 220 playing weight? What we do know is that players that are over 7 feet with movement and skills like Chet are not walking this planet. He really has nearly every tool a scout would look for in a player except for the lack of strength.

As far as finding a player comparison I went with the fellow Minnesotan in a modern-day Kevin McHale. Holmgren will be best used as a four-man next to a physical center. He has the same gangly frame as McHale with just an incredible fundamental skill set. Unlike McHale, he probably doesn’t end up in the perfect situation like McHale had in Boston. The size concerns are real, but they are no more a concern than Pau Gasol or Kevin Garnett coming into the league.

He could end up playing next to his best friend, AAU and high school teammate Jalen Suggs in Orlando but it seems that OKC would be his best fit. Given his shooting touch, he would be a great fit playing alongside playmakers Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey. Though if the Thunder take him at #2 they better invest in a PHYSICAL center to pair him with. They can draft Jalen Duren at #12 or by signing someone like Montrezl Harrell or Mitchell Robinson.




Jabari Smith-PF-Auburn
6'10''/220/7'3.25''
Fr./18.9
16.9 PTS      7.4 REB        1.1 BLK        42.0%-3PT             
Hometown: Tyrone, GA
Best Case NBA Comparison: Kawhi Leonard
Likely NBA Comparison: Rashard Lewis/Andrea Bargnani
ROLE:
#1/2 scorer on a good team, All Star Potential
BEST TOOLS:
  • Elite Shooter
  • Length
  • Defense
  • Versatility

Smith is currently the betting favorite to go number one to the Magic. He has better two-way potential than Banchero and Holmgren. He put up very good numbers in his one year at Auburn. He had some troubles with consistency as he had five games where he failed to score in double figures and was not always aggressive. That right now is the biggest question mark on his game.

The most common player comparison is Rashard Lewis. The question then becomes, is prime Lewis worth the number one overall pick? Like Lewis, Smith can disappear at times and may not have the mentality to be the primary scorer.  If Orlando does take him at one, they will expect dividends of Kawhi Leonard. However, I think he may be destined to be like Bargnani (drafted first overall based on elite potential but may not be able to live up to the first pick hype). I don’t think there is any bust potential for Smith as he will most certainly be a contributor and should eventually be a 20 ppg guy.  



Ivey nasty dunk 

Jaden Ivey-SG-Purdue    
6'5''/180/6'7.5''
17.3 PTS      4.0 REB        3.1 AST        35.8%-3PT                       
So./20.3
Hometown: South Bend, IN
Best Case NBA Comparison: Russell Westbrook
Likely NBA Comparison: Victor Oladipo/Michael Finley
ROLE:
Starting Shooting Guard
BEST TOOLS:

  • Scoring
  • Elite Athletic Ability
  • Playmaking
  • First Step 
  • Toughness

Ivey made a smart decision to return to school and he is now a lock to be drafted in the top 5. He really struggled shooting the ball as a freshman and was able to improve from 26% to 36% from 3 in his second college season. He also improved his passing, rebounding and defense. He is by far and away the most explosive athlete in this class. His first step is as good as any player, and he can elevate and finish like Westbrook or Ja Morant. Like those guys he is very reliant on his physical traits.

He has some questions on defense and his NBA position. He certainly has the skill set to become a point guard but thus far has been better as a shooting guard. In the modern NBA that may not matter. He would be an ideal fit next to Cade Cunningham in Detroit and Pistons GM Troy Weaver would be smart to trade up a spot or two to get him. The Kings pick at number 4 and will have the phones ringing on draft night by teams looking to get Ivey.

Murray great instincts on Defense and nice finish  


Keegan Murray-CF-Iowa 
6'8''/215/6'11''         
So./21.8
23.5 PTS      8.7 REB        39.8%-3PT    1.5 AST        1.9 BLK          1.3 STL                  
Hometown: Cedar Rapids, IA
Best Case NBA Comparison: Antawn Jamison
Likely NBA Comparison: Donyell Marshall/Jamal Mashburn  
ROLE:
Starting Combo Forward with All Star Potential
BEST TOOLS:

  • Scoring
  • Versatility
  • Basketball IQ
  • Defense
  • Leadership

Murray is the last player on my list that is a sure thing to most scouts. He had a monumental jump as he replaced the production of two-time National Player of the Year Luka Garza in Iowa City. Murray went from averaging 7 points in 18 minutes to leading the Big Ten in scoring. He was also an All-American and Big Ten Tournament MVP where he outplayed Ivey in the title game. He is the oldest of the top five prospects as he played a year at a prep school before Iowa. This is a good thing as he is probably the most NBA ready player in the draft class. 

He has more value in todays NBA as he can guard multiple positions and play as a small ball power forward. I compare him to three guys from the 90s that would all be better players in the modern league. He could be an uber productive guy like Jamison but at the least he should have a productive career like Marshall or Mashburn (Jamison, Marshall and Mashburn were all picked #4, Murray may go #4 as well)

 

 




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